Minor reasons not to give in to hysteria in the face of the AfD’s first major victory

There are irresponsible optimists who, when faced with a system bug, pretend nothing is wrong and, without explaining why, simply say: ‘Don’t worry, everything will be fine.’ Then there are other kinds of optimists, if you like, who, when faced with bad news that puts their optimism to the test, choose to think the problem through, not to underestimate it or play it down, whilst still taking a moment to count to ten before concluding that everything will go wrong. The case of the AfD’s stratospheric victory in Saxony-Anhalt – a region the size of Puglia and with a population roughly equal to that of Calabria and Molise combined – forces optimistic thinking to come to terms with a dual reality, perhaps even a triple one.

The first case in point is Germany, of course, and the AfD’s figures are a dangerous sign not only for the future of Germany – where, fortunately, the general election will not be held tomorrow or the day after, but in the spring of 2029 – but also for the future of Europe. Perhaps the most significant question to address is whether the AfD’s result confirms a European trend—that is, a continent veering toward the abyss of a far right that flirts with neo-Nazism—or whether it remains an exception.

Seeing a far-right party triumph in an election season that will see major countries face the electorate in the coming months sends shivers down the spine (Italy, France, Spain and Poland will go to the polls in 2027). But the truth is that over the past year there have been signs confirming the presence of an extremist, anti-European populism that is far from unstoppable. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán was defeated in the general election in April. In Portugal, the populist leader of Chega was defeated in the presidential election in February. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders was defeated in the general election in October. In Moldova, the pro-European PAS defeated the pro-Russian bloc in the general election in September. To this we might also add that one of the most politically stable governments in Europe today—the Italian government—is led by a political leader who has made the rejection of extremism on European issues a key plank of her platform, in order to bolster her own reputation and that of her country (and it is on the vacuum that has been created that General Vannacci is banking). All this, of course, is not to downplay the situation (just as one cannot downplay the hundreds of thousands of people who attended Ratko Mladic’s funeral yesterday in Belgrade; he went down in history for his dream of a ‘Greater Serbia’, which he attempted to achieve by ethnically cleansing Bosnia and Herzegovina through the Srebrenica genocide). But to remind us that the elections in Saxony-Anhalt are a case that can be analysed with an approach other than hysteria.

Hysteria leads us to focus not only on the discontent expressed by voters but also on the responses offered by populist parties. Anti-hysteria, on the other hand, does not mean ignoring the concerns raised by voters, but rather not losing sight of the bigger picture. We must not forget that, when faced with an extremist response, the pursuit of extremism is not the only lever to be pulled in order to avoid losing support. We must not forget that contempt for Ukraine is not a necessary strategy for curbing populism. We must not forget that whilst populists are brilliant at finding scapegoats, anti-populists must become even more brilliant at finding solutions. And if we are seeking solutions rather than scapegoats to respond to the demand for change coming from certain European countries, the answer cannot lie in undermining the non-negotiable pillars of our freedom: a stronger Europe, a less vulnerable Ukraine, and a liberal democracy that is not transformed into an obstacle to safeguarding our future. The AfD’s victory is alarming; the hysteria unleashed in the search for answers to that victory is even more so.