Trump’s next gifts to the Democrats

Los Angeles. With the ‘blue wave’ now upon us, as county officials count the votes, there is talk of a victory exceeding expectations for the Democrats in these mid-term elections. And this celebration by the liberal-progressives – with a touch of socialism – is down to President Donald Trump. That is what Peter Baker, the New York Times’ Washington correspondent, who has covered dozens of elections during his career, tells us. “The Democrats built their campaign on opposition to Trump, and they managed to tap into the mood of public opinion. There have been contests where the quality of the candidates or the way the campaigns were run made the difference. But when you see a wave of this magnitude, it represents a broader rejection of an incumbent president.” According to Baker, co-author with his wife Susan Glasser of the book The Divider on the tycoon’s first presidency, “we’ve never seen an incumbent, and unpopular, president insert himself into a mid-term election and turn it into a referendum on himself. This autumn, he told voters to ‘pretend I’m on the ballot’ 47 times. Well, the voters did just that.” But he miscalculated. “It seems he didn’t realise that people were waiting to vote against him.”

Many are talking about the end of Trump. But this isn’t the first time he’s been dealt a blow. “He still has two years left in his term and can still achieve a great deal. In reality, he didn’t govern through Parliament even when the Republicans were in charge, but resorted to executive power (or, in certain cases, claims to executive power) to achieve his objectives. But whether he likes it or not, he is now a ‘lame duck’ – as the saying goes – waiting for the new lawmakers to be sworn in next January – ‘and the political world will begin, slowly at first, to move beyond Trump, to work out what comes next,’ Baker tells Il Foglio from Capitol Hill.

What will happen? “There will certainly be a struggle to define what a post-Trump Republican Party should look like. On issues such as trade, the war with Iran, immigration and other hot-button issues, there will be candidates seeking to harness the energy of the MAGA movement and others who will argue that it is time to reinvent the party, given Tuesday’s disaster.” But Trump still has two years to go. And, as the journalist explains, the Democrats “will have far less power against him than people imagine. They will not be able to pass laws by overriding Trump’s veto, as they do not have a two-thirds majority in either chamber. They can use budget legislation to force Trump into compromises, but their ability to influence policy is limited”. What will they do? “They will table bills knowing full well that he will block them with his veto”, and this will serve “to argue to voters in the 2028 election that the Republicans are the obstacle to change”. In the meantime, they will focus on internal oversight, investigations and inquiries. As the future Speaker, Hakeem Jeffries, told this newspaper, the first target will be Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

For the Democrats—victorious but still lacking genuine leadership—there is also the issue of the DSA, the Democratic Socialists, who have managed to increase their seats in the House from two to seven, and who hold different positions on various issues compared to the traditional Democrats, such as Israel. It is an open question, explains Baker, “but it is one of those things that come with major electoral victories”. Unlike the Republican leadership, which at times has been held hostage by a faction of its own far-right MPs, the Democratic leadership “will not be dependent on a handful of members on the left”. One figure has emerged from these mid-term elections who seems to be attracting a great deal of attention: the Democrat Jon Ossoff, from Georgia. He retained his Senate seat and everyone is talking about him as the ideal Democratic candidate for ’28, comparing him to a young JFK. “He’s an orator and secured an easy re-election in a state that has been firmly Republican for many years, so he’s aroused great interest amongst Democrats,” Baker explains. “It happens often: there’s a candidate who enters the race early and sets hearts racing. It happens in both parties. But it doesn’t always translate into a successful candidacy that goes all the way.” However, Walter Veltroni may not be aware of this; while the results from California were still unknown, he posted a photo of Ossoff alongside the socialist Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, saying that his dream is for them to stand together – with her as Vice-President – “for the unity of the #democrats”.