Lula has won in Brazil

Lula has won. Following the surprise success of Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, Lula’s victory in the run-off is even more surprising. This is also because Lula is the first president in Brazil’s history to win a run-off after finishing second in the first round, and also the first to secure a fourth term – albeit not consecutive – having gone from 53,879,538 votes (45.16 per cent) to 64,256,232, 51.79 per cent; whilst Flávio rose only from 56,104,503 (47.03 per cent) to 59,826,041 (48.21 per cent).

How was this possible, given that the combined support of the candidates eliminated in the first round who had pledged their backing for the second round should have amounted to 52.4 per cent?

To make up ground, Lula had focused first and foremost on winning back the record number of voters who had not turned out at the polls: 33,469,667, equivalent to 21.08 per cent. In fact, 2,960,239 more voters did turn out, though this represents only 28.53 per cent of the 10,376,694 additional votes he received. Looking at the figures, however, Lula also made up ground from invalid votes, which fell from 3,674,249 to 2,723,305; and from blank votes, which fell from 2,300,798 to 1,430,496. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro secured only 3,721,538 of the 6,420,248 votes received in the first round by the candidates who had promised him their support. Looking at the figures again, however, Lula also gained a further 2,849,680 votes. This would mean, more or less, all 2,675,887 votes for Renan Santos – the far-right candidate who came fourth and had said he would not support anyone – as well as all the votes for the minor left-wing candidates. In reality, it is likely that a large proportion of Santos’s vote went to Bolsonaro anyway, which would mean, however, that he lost votes elsewhere. Flávio Bolsonaro himself has said that the figures do not add up, and that he will call for the election to be annulled. “It is impossible to recognise the result under these circumstances.”

Even the Brazilian media, however, are describing this as an “unprecedented turnaround”. The president stood for his seventh presidential election and reached the second round confident that his experience in electoral contests would enable him to overturn the result of the first round. On the evening of 4 October, following his defeat in the first round, he admitted to being surprised by the result, but said he was confident he could turn it around. He therefore swiftly mobilised his electoral base and promoted a package of social measures to bridge the gap. His programme during the tense campaign focused on social rights, public investment, intelligence-led security and curbing Amazonian deforestation. He also framed the elections as ‘a defence of democracy’ against the possible return to power of the Bolsonaro family. Last Sunday, whilst casting his vote in the state of São Paulo, the president accused his opponent of wanting to “govern under the American flag” and predicted that Brazilians would choose a country where the national colours “are respected”. The left mobilised its supporters in demonstrations under the slogan “No more Bolsonaro”. The demonstrators criticised the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has claimed 700,000 lives, and the cuts to public programmes during Flávio’s father’s term in office. Lula’s supporters claim that his victory will preserve his government’s social and environmental policies, whilst Flávio Bolsonaro had promised changes against a backdrop of rising living costs and insecurity. “Change does not mean depriving people of their rights,” Lula replied to his opponent’s promises, issuing a warning regarding social protection.

Ten days before the run-off, Congress approved a measure to reduce the working week from six to five days and from 44 to 40 hours, without any reduction in pay. Flávio Bolsonaro backed the measure in the final stages of the election campaign, whilst business leaders and economists warned of the impact on labour costs for small businesses, on inflation and on the informal labour market. Similarly, the government increased Bolsa Família (Family Compensation Fund) payments by 15 per cent and brought them forward, so that the 50 million beneficiaries would receive their payments before the run-off election in Brazil. The change to the schedule – which had initially stipulated that around half of households would receive their October payment after the elections – was justified by the government as necessary to mitigate the exceptional risks associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon. The cost of the increase amounted to 5.8 billion reais, equivalent to 1.168 billion dollars, for the remainder of the year. Flávio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, had proposed limiting the Bolsa Família benefit to two years if the beneficiary finds employment. The proposal provided for a 24-month transition period for those entering the labour market or starting a business, with automatic reinstatement into the programme should their income fall below the established threshold again.

Lula has also granted fuel subsidies and relief measures for taxi drivers and small business owners, including debt write-offs for 3.6 million micro-entrepreneurs: measures whose annual cost could range between 180 and 250 billion reais, equivalent to between 31 and 44 billion dollars, according to media estimates. Here too, there is alarm amongst economists, and even before the Brazilian stock market reopened following the news of Lula’s victory, there was a slump in real futures (-9.12 per cent) and in a Brazilian fund on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (-12.72 per cent). The latest pledge was a constitutional amendment to provide free public transport on Saturdays and Sundays, should he be re-elected. Flávio initially stated that Lula would not be able to deliver on this promise, but later backed the proposal; ironically, the polls remained open for an additional two hours precisely because, in many cities, the number of public transport services in operation had plummeted.

Promises aside, the two televised debates may well have been crucial in Lula’s comeback from a deficit that polls had put at up to six points. In particular, the second debate on Friday, featuring Flávio’s extremely serious gaffe when he joked about the little finger Lula lost in a workplace accident. “It’s no use, Lula, giving with one hand and taking back with nine fingers,” Bolsonaro had said. “I won’t let a militiaman call me ‘nine fingers’,” the president replied, alluding to allegations of his opponent’s alleged links with paramilitary groups in Rio de Janeiro, “someone who has never worked a day in his life, whose first job was a farce.” Flávio immediately realised his mistake and apologised, but it may not have been enough.

Lula’s problem now is that, in theory, it is his opponent who holds a clear majority in Congress. The parties supporting him account for 286 out of 513 deputies and 50 out of 81 senators, and had he won with other alliances, he could have secured 342 deputies and 54 senators. But in Brazil, incumbent presidents have always managed to secure support in the most unpredictable ways, and this time should be no exception.