Meloni’s concerns ahead of the upcoming elections (which could be on 9 May)

The date circled in red by the government is 9 May. A section of the ruling coalition would like to hold the election later, in September (the League and Forza Italia). Another section of the ruling coalition would like to hold the election earlier, in April (Fratelli d’Italia). A compromise on the date for the general election, ‘election day’, seems to be within reach. And ahead of that date, there are two concerns plaguing the Prime Minister. Political concerns. The first concern relates to the fear that holding the general election at the same time as the local elections might help the centre-left secure more votes in the general election than it would have done without ‘election day’. The maths is simple: voting will take place in major cities where the centre-left is strong, such as Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin and Bologna, and in those cities it will be difficult not to see a higher turnout among progressive voters than there might otherwise be without the local elections. Meloni’s second concern is that there might be a surprise within the centre-left and that, in the final stretch, what the Prime Minister regards as the ‘insurance policy’ for her political career – Elly Schlein – might falter. It is unclear whether this calculation is correct or not (who will young people vote for in the general election?), but her conviction is clear. Meloni regards Schlein’s presence (more so than Conte’s) as a driving force behind support for the centre-right. Meloni’s fear is easy to understand: if the Constitutional Court were to rule that it is not compulsory to submit the name of the coalition’s prime ministerial candidate alongside the manifesto, might someone on the centre-left not come up with an excuse to avoid holding primaries, thereby casting doubt on who the coalition’s true prime ministerial candidate really is? Who knows.

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