Meloni and the ‘pure proportional’ system. Conte calls on the Democrats: ‘Will you be my minister?’

Why is Conte attacking, planning and undoing? He has realised, like Meloni, that the electoral law on stability is turning into a purely proportional system: every man for himself and instability for all. Listen to Graziano Delrio’s reasoning: “It seems clear to me that no coalition will manage to reach 42 per cent. This means that no one will get the majority bonus and that everyone will want to go it alone.” We’re in the Senate and sitting next to Delrio is Stefano Patuanelli, the former M5S minister, who nods: “It’ll be a purely proportional system.” Even the right is sceptical and Conte is juggling options, phoning the Democrats: “Do you want to be my minister?”

It is a paradox, but the law of certain victory is now its opposite. The League is in decline, Forza Italia is struggling, Vannacci is the very embodiment of indecency with his noose on display, and Meloni is truly becoming increasingly convinced that an alliance is impossible. FdI MPs report that Futuro Nazionale is honouring the general’s promise to speak to the ‘scum’, the ‘dirty dozen’. And it is reaping the rewards. In every province, it is opening its doors to the veterans of Farinacci’s right-wing movement – the only thing missing is the stockfish – and in Rome it is taking in Giuliano Castellino’s gangs, the very gangs that had stormed the CGIL headquarters. For weeks, FdI MPs have been exchanging studies and reports on Vannacci, on the phenomenon, on his book sales, on his use of the internet, and on who is funding him. Without Vannacci, however much of a miracle worker Meloni may be, the united right will not reach 42 per cent. The Lega is predicted to be below five per cent, and there is no party from the north.

When the draft of the PLFI – the ‘fictional’ party – was released, the draft circulated by Attilio Fontana, FdI responded: ‘If only!’ The idea that no coalition could reach 42 per cent is clearly unsettling the left, which has yet to decide on its primaries. It is said that Conte is personally calling his former PD ministers, proposing to repeat that formidable experience. The Conte II government. It is often forgotten that all the PD leaders who now support Schlein served as ministers under Conte. In effect, the party leader is surrounded by ‘friends of Conte’. Even the two third-party figures, X, Manfredi and Gualtieri, were ministers in the Conte II government. The other day, in the Chamber of Deputies, following the vote on the resolution concerning the NEC (National Executive Committee) and the safeguard clause, Conte placed his hand on the shoulder of Peppe Provenzano, another of Conte’s ministers, who had merely followed the party line. In the Senate, Francesco Boccia is another former minister in Conte’s government and, to give an idea of how things are shaping up, he is now the most critical. There is undoubtedly some truth in this rumour about Conte phoning the Democrats, but is it not only human to call former colleagues in government and say: ‘I know your strengths; which ministry would you like?’ When Delrio explained, “This law will turn out to be a purely proportional system,” Stefano Patuanelli, another former minister, approached him, and he too acknowledged that this is how it will ultimately turn out. Delrio also said to Conte’s deputy: “But do you remember how easy it was to draft our government’s programme?”

To suggest that Conte might break the alliance with the PD is a bold claim, but it should not be forgotten that the PD’s most astute mind, Dario Franceschini, was the author of the phrase "march separately, strike together". Conte must fend off the spectre of Di Battista. If he enters the fray, he could take away three per cent of the vote, and AVS could field symbolic candidates such as Francesca Albanese. That is why Conte is keeping all his options open: the primaries he hopes to win – thanks in part to the PD – and even the possibility of standing alone. Meloni, too, is aware that the current scenario favours a purely proportional system. This means that the next government will be formed based on the numbers in Parliament. It is no coincidence that Conte, the Atahualpa of political U-turns, is back in the spotlight. It is the proportional system that fires him up, the system that brings out the best in his manoeuvring. The only ‘majority bonus’ he covets is a free hand, just like Vannacci – and Meloni herself. Nobody wants to win; they just want to ensure that their worst enemy does not win.