Defence policy divides the PD and the centre-right: the reformists oppose the pacifist line imposed by Conte, whilst the League opposes the SAFE

On military spending, the PD has reached an agreement with Giuseppe Conte and the M5S, but is split internally, with the reformists in revolt. And the SAFE is also causing some unease within the majority. This morning, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti is in the Chamber of Deputies (he will be in the Senate this afternoon) for the government’s statement on the activation of the national safeguard clause for defence and energy expenditure. The parliamentary groups have tabled several resolutions. There are six in total, but the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies has ruled out a vote on any parts of the text that will not be incorporated into the majority resolution: MPs will vote on the majority resolution (the only one that will pass) and on those parts of the other resolutions that have not been ruled out or incorporated into the majority resolution. The decision, as explained by the Chamber, stems from the rules of procedure; to understand which parts will be put to the vote, we will have to wait until the vote takes place, and it is possible that the texts will be ‘incorporated’ in their entirety.

But beyond parliamentary proceedings, the issue of defence continues to divide opinion, on both the right and the left. Within the centre-right, however, a compromise has been reached. During the morning, amendments to certain passages of the text concerning the Safe were put forward at the request of the Lega. In short, by playing on nuances, a solution has been found. In the broader political spectrum, however, there is not enough to go round.

Schlein has agreed to Conte’s request regarding a motion (also supported by AVS, but not by Italia Viva) rejecting the use of the SAFE fund for military expenditure; and so, by accommodating the former prime minister, she finds herself at odds with a section of her own party. The reformists have announced they will vote against the motion should the line set out in the text be adopted: no rearmament, no SAFE fund, no military expenditure and no NATO. Conte, leaving the Chamber, replied to those asking him whether he had secured a victory today over the PD secretary: “No victory; we’re talking about politics here… it’s not a competition.” Parliamentary rules have prevented a split that would have been confirmed by a vote: the text will not be put to a vote, but the clash is now well and truly underway. "Even if it had been put to a vote, I still wouldn’t have supported it. The text remains unacceptable," said Lorenzo Guerini.

The split was announced by Democratic Party Senator Filippo Sensi. He told reporters bluntly this morning: “If they put it to a vote like this, we will not vote for the opposition’s joint resolution.” The text conveys a clear pacifist stance. The broad coalition calls on the government “to present a report updating the trajectory of net expenditure and the policy objectives for public finance, and to specify the extent and duration of any deviation, ensuring in all cases that it is directed exclusively towards combating absolute poverty, funding the public health service, supporting households and businesses affected by the energy crisis, and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports, in particular through investment in clean energy sources, energy networks and infrastructure, whilst ensuring that the available resources are not allocated to military expenditure".

And, it goes on to say, “the government undertakes to radically reconsider the spending commitments made within NATO and to avert further increases in expenditure on weapons systems that weigh on the national budget, as well as to take steps to move beyond the uncoordinated rearmament plans of national armies, aiming instead to build a genuine common European defence”. Parliamentary sources speaking to "Il Foglio" confirm that the text has already been tabled and will not be amended. The House rules preventing a vote avoid a major split on the left. Marco Grimaldi of AVS explains: "As we state in our resolution: a budgetary deviation is only permissible if it is directed towards the working classes of this country."

In his explanation of vote, the leader of the Five Star Movement, Conte, addressed the Chamber: “The M5S will vote a resounding ‘no’ against rearmament. A deviation from the budget is possible, but do not ask us for a single euro for rearmament.” He added: “European rearmament without even a shred of a European defence capability means giving every country the chance to rearm as it pleases; this has satisfied Germany’s needs, which it has been suffering from for decades… By 2039, it will be the largest conventional army in Europe, and that is where the AfD is. You are handing Europe and an arsenal over to the neo-Nazis.”

At the League’s request, the centre-right’s joint text was amended, making the use of the Safe a viable option and, above all, emphasising that its funds could also be used for internal security if necessary. Discussions continued throughout the morning. The resolution is the only one that will be put to a vote in the Chamber and also the only one that is, in all likelihood, set to pass.

The document, in its final version, commits the Government “to take the necessary steps to initiate the procedure for invoking the national safeguard clause regarding expenditure aimed at strengthening the resilience of the energy system and the security of its supply, within an overall limit of 0.6 per cent of GDP during the reference period; in the field of defence, including in relation to investment, within the limit of 0.9 per cent of GDP during the reference period”. The Government, “for the financing of defence-related measures”, is called upon “to assess the use of various financing arrangements, including, where deemed advantageous overall, those set out in the Safe programme, whilst in any case prioritising the use of funds for defence and national security technology systems”.

“We will vote against the majority’s resolution calling for access to the safeguard clause and, consequently, to the Safe scheme as well.” This was stated by Edoardo Ziello, a Futurist MP, in his explanation of vote in the Chamber of Deputies. At the end of his speech, he held up a noose in the Chamber: “You are placing a dangerous noose around Italy’s neck.”

The text of the resolution tabled by Futuro Nazionale reads: “We call on the government not to request the activation of the safeguard clause for the energy sector under the conditions currently proposed by the European Commission, should it continue to permit only an increase in national debt earmarked for medium- and long-term investments, without allowing for adequate immediate support for households and businesses to cope with the cost of energy and fuel” and “to avoid resorting to a new deficit and further net borrowing”. Regarding SAFE, they call for “not participating in the SAFE lending scheme to finance military programmes or the geopolitical needs of third parties, refusing to incur new debt at the expense of Italian citizens and prioritising the allocation of all available resources to the defence of national borders, internal security and economic support for households and businesses”.

Furthermore, Futuro Nazionale devotes a section of the text to energy supply: “We call on the government to identify energy-producing countries capable of guaranteeing supplies on terms that are more economically advantageous than current supply costs, whilst also taking into consideration nations such as the Russian Federation”.

The Italia Viva group did not sign the text alongside the other opposition parties and tabled its own resolution. The text reads: “To request, at European level, the activation of the safeguard clause, in order to obtain the budgetary flexibility necessary to support measures in favour of households and businesses to cope with the rise in energy costs”. There is also a passage on the use of the SAFE facility: “To take all necessary steps to benefit from the resources of the SAFE facility to promote investment aimed at fostering technological innovation, the Italian supply chain and employment, whilst ensuring that this does not have a negative impact on the funding of the welfare system and services for citizens”.

And there is also a passage on Ukraine: “The government undertakes to continue and strengthen its support for Ukraine by promoting, at European level, a joint diplomatic effort, including through the appointment of a special envoy with a mandate to seek an end to hostilities and to Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

Azione has also tabled a standalone motion. It contains very specific commitments, particularly regarding defence and security. It reads: “The government undertakes, within 60 days, to present to Parliament a comprehensive plan for achieving NATO targets that goes beyond the current pretence of accounting reclassification and sets out real increases in operational capability.” And, regarding the national safeguard clause: “The government undertakes to activate it to finance the process of meeting the NATO target and the €14.9 billion SAFE funding line for the strengthening of the defence industrial base.”

+Europa has finally tabled a standalone motion, with Benedetto Della Vedova as the lead signatory. The motion commits the government “to use the national safeguard clause exclusively to finance expenditure that is effectively attributable to the purposes set out in European regulations, allocating budgetary flexibility primarily to additional investments, and ensuring that this does not result in the mere reclassification of expenditure that has already been planned or financed”. And on SAFE: “We call on the government to promote the strengthening and use of common instruments for financing the Union’s strategic investments, particularly in the defence and energy security sectors, with a view to reducing recourse to national debt and thereby fostering greater European integration and strategic autonomy, starting with the SAFE instrument, which must be given priority, with a view to achieving a common European defence.”