The idea of opening up EU membership in Ottawa is meeting with resistance from France and Germany, as well as a lack of concrete proposals. At the Montreal summit, they will focus on the Alliance for the Future: trade, technology, raw materials and security

The ‘frugal’ states and the ‘cohesion’ countries remain entrenched in their respective positions, and negotiations on the 2028–34 European budget have stalled. Funding for competitiveness and defence is at risk, whilst national interests continue to take precedence over European strategic priorities.

The European Union has remained Kyiv’s staunch ally. The Ukrainian president is calling for funding for 2027, sanctions against Russia and the freezing of Russian assets. The challenge facing Europeans and the next taboos to be tackled

Washington is threatening to cut back on intelligence support for Kyiv and is negotiating with Putin over Russian diesel. The EU is biding its time, hoping that the political climate in the US will shift after the mid-term elections, but it is not yet in a position to support Ukraine’s defence on its own.