Zelensky’s wake-up call to his Europe

Brussels. Following Donald Trump’s latest betrayal, Europe has remained Ukraine’s “only ally”, said the Prime Minister of Latvia, Andris Kulbergs, before the European Council welcomed Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president took him at his word. In his address to the heads of state and government, Zelensky asked the European Union and its member states for what had been considered unthinkable until Trump’s diesel deal with Vladimir Putin – a deal followed by a series of decisions that undermine Kyiv’s ability to defend its population and the front line: new sanctions comprising a twenty-second package (and no easing of those already in place), 70 billion euros to cover the cost of the war in 2027, the transfer of Russia’s frozen assets into a special financial instrument under EU control, at least 300 Patriot interceptors to get through the winter, massive investment in the production of drones and ballistic missiles, and a further step forward in Ukraine’s accession process. Putin wants to “annihilate” Ukraine because “he genuinely believes we are not a country or a nation”, Zelensky explained during a press conference. Trump’s betrayal? “We will resist for the sake of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people”, Zelensky replied: “We have been attacked, our territory has been occupied and our people have been killed. It is only logical that we have the right to self-defence, a wholly legitimate right.” EU heads of state and government gave Zelensky a warm welcome, in a show of unity behind a Ukrainian president whose legitimacy is explicitly contested by Trump. When he entered the European Council chamber, everyone stood up and applauded him. “Now is not the time to withdraw support for Ukraine, nor to ease sanctions against Russia. It is time to step up our support and increase the pressure,” said the President of the European Council, António Costa. But symbols and fine words count for little in the face of what is set to be the darkest winter for Ukraine since the start of Russia’s war of aggression. 

The real question is what Europeans are actually prepared to do. From frozen Russian assets to Patriot missiles, via sanctions and financial aid, recent months have shown a growing reluctance to do whatever is necessary to support Ukraine.

Standing alongside Zelensky, the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the preparation of a twenty-second package of sanctions against Russia. This move, too, risks being purely symbolic. The twenty-first package remained stalled for months due to opposition from certain Member States regarding measures that would have an impact on their economies. The go-ahead was only given once the ban on the transport of Russian liquefied natural gas (due to opposition from Greece), the embargo on cod imports (due to opposition from Germany and Portugal) and the visa ban on former combatants (due to opposition from France and Italy) had been removed from the package. On the issue of arms, Zelensky’s priority is air defence. The Ukrainian president explained that European countries possess the 300 Patriot interceptors that Ukraine needs. “Europe has these numbers.” However, EU member states are reluctant to transfer their Patriots to Kyiv. Greece and Spain have repeatedly refused, despite their stocks being particularly high and some of the interceptors nearing the end of their service life. The funds remaining within SAFE – the 150 billion loan facility for the EU’s rearmament programme – may be used to develop projects with the Ukrainian defence industry. However, resources are limited (around 10 billion) and will go to EU member states.

The 70 billion shortfall in Ukraine’s 2027 budget will be the next test for the EU. Until last week, the Commission had remained unyielding in the face of Zelensky’s request to contribute to Kyiv’s financial needs in addition to the 90 billion euro loan. Trump’s betrayal has changed the calculations. The request by some countries to use frozen Russian sovereign assets is meeting with opposition from Belgium. Zelensky himself has shifted his position: the transfer of €200 billion in Russian assets from the Belgian company Euroclear to an EU financial instrument should prevent Putin and Trump from getting their hands on them. A new EU loan will in all likelihood be needed for the 70 billion. “Last year we made 90 billion available for 2026 and 2027. We know that Ukraine cannot manage with this money,” said the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. “We will have to revisit the issue as early as November and December.”