The EU faces its ‘Trump 3.0’ crisis

As if there weren’t already enough crises to deal with, European Union leaders will face yet another crisis at their summit on Thursday and Friday: the Trump 3.0 crisis. On Friday 9 October, the US President announced a fresh rift with Ukraine and the Europeans. Donald Trump has struck a deal with Vladimir Putin, under which the United States will purchase diesel from Russia. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky’s negotiators and national security advisers from France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Commission were in Miami to meet Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trump’s two envoys warned that the United States would cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine if attacks on Russian refineries continued. On Saturday, the U.S. president directly threatened Zelensky. “It is time for Ukraine to have a new president,” said Trump, blaming Zelensky for the rise in diesel prices. 

Trump has announced, yet again, an energy truce, about which Zelensky said: ‘I knew nothing about the truce; if it has been negotiated with Putin, let us know when it begins – we are ready to accept it.’

Almost 20 months have passed since the first rift with Trump over Ukraine, following the major public clash at the White House on 28 February 2024. Yet the problem for Europeans remains the same: despite all the rhetoric, they are still unable to support Ukraine’s defence without the United States. The threat to halt the sharing of intelligence could prove disastrous for Kyiv’s ability to defend its cities and critical infrastructure, as well as to launch deep strikes against Russia. Elon Musk wrote on his social media platform X that Zelenskyy “has gone too far”. The suspension of Starlink services would be catastrophic for Ukrainian soldiers who are holding the front line and have managed to push Russia back in the Donbas. Almost five years after the start of the war of aggression, and twenty months after the major clash between Trump and Zelensky at the White House, the EU and other European countries are still unable to provide the weapons, air defences, intelligence and satellite connectivity needed to fill the void left by the United States.

The EU’s reactions to Trump’s remarks illustrate Europe’s dependence on the whims of the US president. The German Chancellor, Frederich Merz, merely “took note” of the US decision to buy diesel from Russia and reiterated his “support for Ukraine in its defensive struggle”, his spokesperson said. Ursula von der Leyen echoed Germany’s line. “The EU is reducing its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and will resolutely continue to do so,” said a Commission spokesperson: “Europe does not want to fuel the war machine against Ukraine.” There was no mention of Trump. Even less so was there any direct and explicit criticism of the US president. Only a post by the High Representative, Kaja Kallas, revealed any dissent. “Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenue to wage the war. This is not the time to ease the pressure on Moscow, and Europe will not do so,” said Kallas.

Faced with Trump, the EU’s only response is to stall. The attack on Europeans is not limited to Ukraine. On Friday, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, announced unprecedented sanctions against the International Criminal Court in order to render the UN institution ineffective. European appeals have fallen on deaf ears. Yet the Commission is not yet ready to activate the ‘Blocking Statute’, the legal instrument that would allow the effects of the sanctions to be neutralised. ‘Given that there is a delay of several months before the measures take effect, there is room for dialogue,’ said the Commission. “Europe and the US are strong and reliable allies. We always manage our relationship with the United States whilst preserving our alliance,” said the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, on Friday. “When we have any problems, we talk to our American friends. It’s easy,” added Costa.

In the case of Ukraine, Europeans are hoping that the storm and the rift will blow over after the mid-term elections in the United States. Trump’s move appears to be motivated by the approaching election and the prospect of defeat for his Republican Party. His aim is to demonstrate to his support base that he is reducing diesel costs and to shift the blame for rising fuel prices onto Zelensky, thereby diverting attention from the catastrophic effects of his war against Iran. Europeans hope that a US Congress with a Democratic majority will be able to force Trump to toe the line on Ukraine and NATO, returning to the status quo that existed prior to his re-election to the White House.

Zelensky has denounced Trump’s “weakness”. The Ukrainian president will attend the European Council on Thursday and Friday. Commenting on the US president’s agreement with Putin, the Ukrainian leader highlighted the Europeans’ failings. “Recently, there was a European decision to lift sanctions against Russian oligarchs. Since then, Russian bombardments and the suffering of the Ukrainian people have only increased,” wrote Zelensky. The Europeans’ failings are not limited to dithering in the face of Trump, hoping that the current crisis will be swiftly overcome whilst awaiting the next crises. Between January and September 2026, the EU imported 12 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas from Russia, worth almost 8 billion euros, according to data compiled by the NGO Urgewald.