‘First Putin must end the war, then we can discuss European security,’ the EU tells Trump supporters

Brussels. On the first day of negotiations in Abu Dhabi regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Europeans managed to secure a statement from the Americans committing the Trump Administration to negotiate with Vladimir Putin on the terms set by Europe. Any discussions with Russia on Europe’s security architecture will only take place “following the end of the war in Ukraine”, states the joint declaration by the United States, Ukraine and the Europeans. This was a condition set by the European representatives. Reopening the security architecture – whether immediately or after the war – is a trap that could play into Putin’s hands. For the time being, the risk has been postponed.

The views of businesspeople carry little weight when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Even less so those of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who act on behalf of Donald Trump, whose decisions can change radically in the blink of an eye. Yet the commitments made by the two American envoys, even before sitting down at the table with Putin’s representatives, are nonetheless significant for Europe. The fear was of an agreement between Trump and Putin concluded behind the backs of Ukraine and the Europeans, both in terms of territorial concessions and the continent’s future security architecture. According to the joint statement, any future agreement between Kyiv and Moscow must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of decision-making, as well as provide credible security guarantees to Kyiv.

In the meeting that followed between the Russian and American delegations, mediated by Kushner and Witkoff, a new prisoner exchange was agreed upon as a confidence-building measure, and long-term security guarantees were discussed. “The trilateral format was constructive and quite substantial,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We had time to address the need for, and possible parameters of, humanitarian measures. The release of prisoners of war is a priority.” On security guarantees, Zelensky said that “concrete measures are needed to prevent a resumption of the war”.

For the Europeans in Abu Dhabi, there was a second priority. The continent’s security architecture has become part of the parameters of a potential Trump-Putin agreement on Ukraine, when the US president spoke of a “big, beautiful deal” extending to the rest of Europe. Reopening the security architecture “plays into Putin’s hands”, a European diplomat explains to Il Foglio. The Russian president had stated his ambition to restructure it in his speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, in which he announced to the world his plans to restore Moscow’s control over neighbouring countries, bringing an end to the cooperation established at the 2002 Pratica di Mare summit.

The European security architecture has been enshrined in a series of agreements – from the Helsinki Final Act to the creation of the NATO-Russia Council, via the Budapest Memorandum under which Ukraine handed over its nuclear weapons to Moscow in exchange for a commitment to respect its territorial integrity. “We have a European security architecture in place. I have counted at least 30 international agreements in which Russia has committed to respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity; several of these also concern Ukraine,” the High Representative, Kaja Kallas, noted on Monday. “The problem is that Russia is not honouring these agreements. We should focus exclusively on how to ensure that Russia actually fulfils the obligations it has already undertaken.”

“The European security architecture isn’t working because the Russians have blown it up,” explains the European diplomat. “It’s the usual Russian negotiating tactic: breaking something that exists and demanding compensation in exchange for agreeing to rebuild it.” Kallas often speaks of the ‘Gromyko trap’, named after the Soviet Union’s Foreign Minister who managed to extract concessions from the West through threats and maximalist demands. Putin’s current attempt is to create a new Yalta, paradoxically at a time when Russia is much weaker than it was then. The joint statement signed by Kushner and Witkoff not only defers the issue until after the end of hostilities, but also does not call into question the current security architecture, reaffirming that “a strong NATO will remain central to Euro-Atlantic collective defence”. Trump’s two envoys have also committed to including the Europeans in the peace negotiation process in Ukraine through “multilateral” discussions.