The summit between Ukraine, Russia and the United States begins today. Who will be attending, the topics to be discussed, and the outlook

Kyiv. Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, announced yesterday that the Ukrainian delegation was already on its way to Abu Dhabi, where talks between the delegations from Ukraine, Russia and the United States will take place today and tomorrow – the first such talks following a nine-month hiatus. Security advisers from European countries (the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy) will also be present, as well as representatives from NATO and the European Commission. “It is essential for us to maintain close coordination with all our key partners,” Umerov wrote on his Facebook page. 

Umerov will lead the Ukrainian delegation and, according to Il Foglio’s sources, the President’s Office has assigned him three main tasks: de-escalation measures in the Black Sea to ensure food supplies, de-escalation in the energy sector, and discussions on a trilateral summit between the leaders of Ukraine, the United States and Russia to bring the war to an end. “Much will depend on the US side’s stance,” says a source close to the Ukrainian president. “It is not entirely clear what the Russians and Americans have discussed, so there could be some surprises,” he adds.

Analysing the composition of the delegations, it appears that the same diplomatic approach as last year is being followed, according to Viktor Shlynchak, chairman of the board of directors of the Institute of World Politics: “Once again, a strong security bloc is emerging. But the military component has already been discussed several times,” he observes. The Russian delegation is once again led by Vladimir Medinsky, a Putin aide who likes to digress on historical issues “concerning the roots of the conflict”. However, there are some changes. Russia has strengthened its delegation by including two deputy foreign ministers. Shlynchak suggests that this is not due to Moscow’s willingness to engage in substantive discussions, but rather to a request from the Americans. He is convinced that Vladimir Putin will not agree to an energy truce in the coming months, but that, as the cold weather sets in, he will step up his attacks on the energy sector “to secure a position of strength ahead of the G20 summit on 14–15 December”.

At the same time, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that the Abu Dhabi meeting cannot be described as a farce of negotiations. “These are serious negotiations, but they will not be decisive,” he says. We should not expect major progress. “It is very likely that the Russians will set out their demands: non-aligned status for Ukraine, and a reduction in troop numbers,” suggests Fesenko. Kyiv will not accept this, but will insist on setting the agenda for future meetings. “We must secure a ceasefire, at least gradually and on a sector-by-sector basis,” explains the political scientist. This round is a tactical battle, a process that is more technical than political. But it will reveal how events will unfold and whether diplomacy can continue. “The results of Abu Dhabi could also be discussed at the summit of the leaders of the United States, Russia and China in November,” believes Fesenko.

Volodymyr Ohryzko, who served as Ukraine’s Foreign Minister from 2007 to 2009, recalls how negotiations unfold. Each country arrives with secret directives specifying what needs to be done. “But those tasked with implementing what is written in the directives cannot deviate one iota,” he says. While the Ukrainian delegation remains in contact with its president during the negotiations, the Russian delegation does not. Russia has not yet changed its rhetoric and continues to insist that “all the objectives of the special military operation must be achieved. This does not indicate a genuine willingness to engage in diplomacy”, according to Ohryzko. But that does not mean it should be abandoned. “We can talk endlessly. The Soviet-American negotiations on strategic arms limitation lasted for decades,” the former minister told Il Foglio.

Political scientist Igor Reiterovich also believes that much will depend on the US stance. The new Congress will convene for its first session on 3 January. “Trump must demonstrate at least some form of victory before then,” the analyst believes. A de-escalation in the energy sector or a ceasefire in the Black Sea could be options. “The presence of European representatives in Abu Dhabi lends greater weight to the meeting,” he concludes.

Previous negotiations show that Russia and Ukraine usually manage to reach an agreement on only one issue: the exchange of prisoners. But not on ending the war.