Where is France heading? The prospect of a fragile social truce

Where is France heading? It is a question that is not easy to answer, given that every section of the French population is being presented with content which, driven by algorithms, reinforces their own preconceptions. Older people perceive attacks on shops, whilst young people focus on police violence. Last weekend saw the police regain control, with major demonstrations giving rise to only minor disturbances. Radical left-wing groups, partly responsible for the violence against institutions and police officers, have been contained, but far-right militants have also been arrested whilst seeking violent confrontation. Friday’s attack in Trappes, on the outskirts of Paris, saw a man shoot and kill a young Black man and seriously injure a 12-year-old girl with a submachine gun, motivated by racism. This tragic incident has sent a clear message, prompting political parties to condemn the violence and putting pressure not only on the far-right Rassemblement National – accused of inciting racial hatred – but also on the left-wing France Insoumise, which often justifies violence and flirts with anti-Semitism.

The Rassemblement National (RN) held its congress in Orléans, confirming Jordan Bardella as president by a landslide vote, despite recent revelations about his anti-Semitic remarks. At the same time, Marine Le Pen has launched her election campaign, buoyed by her popularity, whilst ignoring the forthcoming decision of the Court of Cassation which could convict her a few weeks before the elections. The RN continues to gain support among the public and intends to capitalise on this. However, during the Orléans congress, the demonstration by the left, which describes itself as anti-fascist, showed that the ability to mount opposition against the RN has not disappeared – a factor that remains a variable in the election campaign.

Furthermore, the stability of Moody’s rating has, for the time being, halted the negative trend of mistrust in the French economy, particularly in the international context.

President Emmanuel Macron met with a number of representatives of sixth-form students on Sunday; this meeting was followed on Monday by substantial announcements, including a comprehensive reform of the much-maligned algorithmic university selection system, Parcoursup, as well as an increase in the number of places on short-cycle degree programmes and loans to improve the situation – a political response also inspired by the feedback received via the open consultation platform. High school and student organisations have declared their intention to continue the protests, but it remains to be seen next week, upon the return from the All Saints’ Day holidays, to what extent this will happen.

In recent demonstrations, a relative convergence of the protests has been observed, with the trade union contributing to the demonstrations both through its organisational capabilities and by championing the defence of wages and the public service. Added to this is a protest against high petrol prices – and thus the high cost of living – inspired by the ‘new Yellow Vests’ movement. High school pupils, however, were the original driving force behind the protest, and so, if the government manages to appease them, it might secure a respite. This is also because there is a fundamental contradiction between the demands of the high school pupils and those of the trade unions. The French population is still growing rapidly among secondary school pupils, and it is therefore logical that there should be demands from an age group that not only struggles to secure a place at university – where demand outstrips supply – but is also grappling with questions about its future, with job prospects partially, if not entirely, compromised by the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. There are therefore specific needs amongst young people that clash with those of the older generation, who are treated very generously by a system that has suspended the reform of the retirement age, freezing it until 2028. And, given the lack of additional resources, a choice must be made between one group and the other.

It will now be important to see whether this government’s handling of the situation will be enough to keep the wave of protests relatively in check and enable the country to be steered through to the presidential elections. All these problems, with the debt at the forefront, will resurface forcefully for the next president, and the various candidates will be called upon to clarify their positions on the matter. If, on the other hand, the crisis shows no sign of abating—given that Macron and his minority government are firing their last shots—then there could be an early election to break the deadlock, whilst fully aware, however, that the bitter pill the next majority will have to swallow will be a very bitter one, whoever they may be. But France plays such a systemic role within the European context that the pressure – both internal and external – to reform public finances and revitalise an economy with strong potential is growing ever stronger. This is a matter of great importance for the Union as a whole and one which, amongst other things, contradicts nationalist views that tend to regard the European project as a zero-sum game, failing to understand that growth, or decline, are cycles that are largely shared.