The students’ victory in Serbia presents both a dilemma and an opportunity for the EU

The first to break the news of the Studentska Lista’s victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Serbia was none other than Aleksandar Vučić, the former President of the Republic, who was defeated in his attempt to cling to power – which he had held uninterrupted for fourteen years – and return as Prime Minister. Over these fourteen years, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which he founded, has taken over the institutions through a corrupt, patronage-based system, and the scope for freedom has narrowed dangerously. It was precisely the fight against corruption that enabled Serbian students – after filling the squares for two years – to mobilise a weary and distrustful nation, and a generation that viewed politics as a dirty tool for profiteers. In the elections with the highest turnout since 1992, the student list – deliberately without an official leader (partly to avoid smear campaigns orchestrated by the SNS and pro-government media) – secured 52 per cent of the vote and around 140 seats out of 250. Now the students and their elected representatives – high-profile but almost all without political experience – will not only have to dismantle a regime, but also grapple with the divisive – and crucial – issues that have been sidelined in the name of unity. Among these is Europe. “Serbia has made its voice heard,” said Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, who was among the first to congratulate the students: “The EU’s door is open.” In Brussels, Serbia has long been regarded as the key country in the Western Balkans for the region’s stability. However, the erosion of democracy and the rule of law, the divergence on foreign policy – Belgrade refuses to impose sanctions on Russia – and the lack of willingness to normalise relations with Kosovo have effectively stalled the integration process: last July, the Commission’s proposal to open the third negotiating cluster met with opposition from several Member States.

In September, Kos cancelled his visit to Serbia after condemning the attendance of Serbian government officials at the funeral of Ratko Mladic, who died in The Hague whilst serving a life sentence for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Vucic was a nationalist, anti-European and pro-Russian leader, yet it would be wrong to regard the mass mobilisation that culminated in his electoral defeat as a pro-European phenomenon. The students avoided taking a stance on EU accession, both because of the differing views that coexist within the movement and because it would not have helped them secure broad electoral support: according to the May Eurobarometer, Serbia is the only one of the Western Balkan candidate countries where support for Europe (around 36 per cent) has fallen rather than risen. According to political scientist Nikola Burazer, programme director at the Centre for Contemporary Politics in Belgrade, this is also the result of mistakes made by Brussels in the name of supposed stability: “The EU has turned a blind eye to very worrying developments regarding authoritarianism in Serbia and has not exerted sufficient pressure on Vučić,” he explains to Il Foglio.

In 2020, the EU took a stand against the opposition’s boycott of the elections, which it claimed were held under unfair conditions. Brussels responded to the 2022 constitutional reform and the 2023 media laws – deemed ineffective by many observers – with positive assessments and the opening of new negotiation chapters. This stance is radically different from that adopted – as the political scientist points out – towards Nikola Gruevski’s North Macedonia between 2015 and 2016. This is another reason why Euroscepticism has found fertile ground in Serbia, even amongst those who viewed the integration process with confidence. Yet something has changed, first and foremost within the European circles closest to Vučić: the European People’s Party, of which the SNS has been a member for ten years, placed it under monitoring in 2025 in response to the clash with students. Following Mladić’s funeral, the rift widened: many in the EPP strongly support the party’s expulsion, which now seems even more likely. There has also been a shift within the Commission, “based above all on the replacement of certain key figures, such as Marta Kos”, explains Burazer. Compared to her predecessor – the Hungarian Olivér Várhelhy, a close associate of Viktor Orbán – the Commissioner has not only taken a clearer stance on Vucic’s missteps, but has also explicitly backed the student movement. Today, she reminds them that the doors of the Union are open to those who, whilst not declaring themselves pro-European, fight against corruption, for democracy and the rule of law, and thus to bring Serbia a little closer to Europe.