Budget, migrants and the EU’s priorities under fire from populists

Brussels. António Costa, President of the European Council, will today embark on a ‘tour of the capitals’ of the Member States in an attempt to forge a consensus amongst national leaders on the European Union’s key autumn agenda items. The first stop is Bratislava, in Slovakia, on his return from Ukraine. The final stop will be Dublin, in Ireland, the country currently holding the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Costa’s task will not be an easy one: the 2028–34 budget, Ukraine and enlargement, defence and security, the Middle East, competitiveness and immigration. Most of these issues are divisive, subject to potential external or internal crises, and will be on the agenda for the European summits in October, November and December. Costa’s main objective is to create the conditions for reaching an agreement by the end of the year on the multiannual financial framework, the EU’s 2028–34 budget.

The President of the European Council “will be in listening mode. He wants to form a coherent picture of the overall situation regarding the negotiations on the multiannual financial framework,” says an EU official. But the shadow of the 2027 election year is already looming over the decisions to be taken over the next four months. France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Finland, Greece, Slovakia and Estonia will go to the polls next year (Sweden and Latvia are already doing so in 2026). “Discussions and negotiations between member state leaders are made more difficult by populist rhetoric,” explains another European source. The proof: “Ceuta”, says the source, emphasising how populist parties are forcing the governments in power to play by their own rules. The summer clash over migrants will not only be repeated at the October European Council – during which a strategic debate on migration is scheduled – but also risks spilling over into the EU’s other priorities.

The Ceuta crisis was more political than a migration crisis. “The situation stabilised rapidly,” explains the EU official. Yet Ceuta was used as the basis for an unprecedented attack on the leader of a Member State, involving unilateral measures (Italy’s suspension of the Schengen Agreement) and letters signed by 22 heads of state and government (to challenge the regularisation of one million migrants and demand EU funding for repatriation centres outside the EU). Costa was the only leader of the EU institutions to have immediately expressed his solidarity with Spain. In the eyes of the President of the European Council, there is a gap between facts and politics. With the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, all the tools needed to manage a crisis have been put in place. Having come into force in June, the situation in Ceuta offered an opportunity to put it into practice. Instead, under pressure from populist parties, the leaders of the 22 Member States have embarked on an arms race of proposals deemed unworkable or unacceptable to a minority (including France and Spain). On the Schengen issue, Italy is considered “isolated”. The regularisation of migrants “is a national competence”, the EU official points out.

Populists are poisoning discussions amongst the twenty-seven Member States, even on other pressing issues. Ukraine is already paying the price on several fronts. Kyiv’s accession process is facing “obstacles” from some national leaders, an EU official acknowledges. Several governments are not prepared to transfer more Patriot interceptors to Ukraine for fear of being accused by extremist parties of leaving the nation’s defences exposed. With Russia bombing Odessa, Kyiv needs to reopen the EU’s “solidarity corridors” to export its wheat, but the capitals of Central and Eastern Europe are opposed to this for fear of a revolt by their farmers.

Costa hopes that, regarding the 2028–34 budget, the looming 2027 elections will encourage leaders to set aside their red lines to allow the EU to fund both new priorities (defence and competitiveness) and old ones (agriculture and cohesion). “Germany and France have no interest in delaying an agreement next year,” explains the EU official. But Chancellor Friedrich Merz leads the group of ‘frugal’ countries demanding a radical cut to the Commission’s proposal: 400 billion out of 2,000 billion. On Thursday, Merz will host in Berlin the leaders who want to impose an austerity budget on the EU. Germany, too, faces elections marred by the AfD: eight Länder will go to the polls between September and 2027.