The countdown and the pitfalls in the run-up to the elections

The exact timing of the election remains uncertain, but as time passes, certain parliamentary developments become increasingly significant for gauging the legislature’s trajectory. Lega maintains that it prefers to hold the vote at a leisurely pace, in September. Forza Italia echoes this position, although observers cannot rule out a bluff. Meloni has instructed her MPs to proceed as if the election were to take place in the spring, and she genuinely believes this will be the case. However, there are certain pieces of legislation that can help us understand the rhythm of the coming months in politics. The League might decide not to oppose an early election should the reform it is most closely tied to – ‘differentiated autonomy’ – be approved, and things are beginning to move on this front. On 13 October, the Council of Ministers approved the draft bills implementing the agreements with Veneto, Lombardy, Piedmont and Liguria. Minister Calderoli aims to finalise the process in the Chamber of Deputies by January and in the Senate in the early months of next year. Fratelli d’Italia is not opposed, but has no intention of proceeding with the League’s reform without adding something of its own. One reform in particular: that concerning the strengthening of the powers of Rome as the capital. It is a constitutional reform, requiring four parliamentary votes, with at least three months between the first and second readings in each chamber. There is time, but it is tight. Understanding the direction these reforms will take will help us gauge whether the ‘May window’ is a genuine possibility or merely a figment of the imagination.

What you have just read is an extract from editor-in-chief Claudio Cerasa’s newsletter, La Situa. You can subscribe here – it’s simple and free.