Politics
If a vote were held today •
Supermedia Youtrend. Vannacci catches up with Avs. The moderates are gaining ground
Fn continues to rise, reaching 6.5 per cent. The League and FdI fall to 5.9 and 27 per cent respectively, whilst FI rises to 8.2 per cent. Across the broader political spectrum, all parties are down, except for the PD, which remains stable at 27 per cent. Iv and Azione gain 0.1 per cent. The two scenarios under the Stabilicum
Photo: Ansa
Futuro Nazionale has extended its lead over the Lega and drawn level with the Green-Left Alliance at 6.5 per cent. This is according to the latest Supermedia poll conducted by YouTrend for Agi. At the start of the week, as we reported here, SWG put the party led by former general Roberto Vannacci at 6.3 per cent, whilst the Green-Left Alliance stood at 6.4 per cent; now, however, the gap has been closed. However, the YouTrend survey shows that whilst the political group led by Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni has grown by 0.2 per cent compared with 2 July, Vannacci’s party has risen by 0.6 per cent, further widening the gap with Matteo Salvini’s Carroccio, which has fallen a further 0.3 per cent to 5.9 per cent.
Fratelli d’Italia, on the other hand, whilst remaining the country’s leading party, lost 0.6 per cent and fell to 27 per cent. Overall, the poll shows that it is the moderate parties within the majority that are gaining ground: Forza Italia rose to 8.2 per cent (+0.2), whilst Maurizio Lupi’s Noi Moderati rose to 1.2 per cent (+0.1). Alongside them, the centrist parties have also gained ground: Carlo Calenda’s Azione and Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva, both gaining 0.1 per cent, have reached 3.1 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. Among the other opposition parties, the Democratic Party remains stable at 21.3 per cent, whilst Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement, having lost 0.6 per cent, has fallen to 12.8 per cent. +Europa has also lost a few tenths of a percentage point (0.2 per cent) and stands at 1.3 per cent.
What would the next general election be like if the vote were held under the Stabilicum system?
Yesterday, the Chamber of Deputies approved at first reading – not without some difficulty – the bill designed to replace the current electoral system with another, known as the ‘Stabilicum’, with the aim of bringing stability to the two houses of Parliament. YouTrend has carried out a simulation which shows that, as things stand, Stabilicum would give the centre-right an absolute majority of seats if the coalition were to agree to include Fn. in its ranks. However, if Vannacci’s party were to stand alone, the Campo Largo coalition would emerge victorious.
In fact, according to the poll, in the first scenario the centre-right would secure 222 seats in the Chamber of Deputies – where an absolute majority is 201 deputies – and 133 in the Senate (absolute majority 103), whilst the Broad Coalition would retain 160 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 77 in the Senate. In the second scenario – that is, if the centre-right were to decide not to include Vannacci in the coalition – the centre-left could count on 222 deputies and 112 senators, compared with 141 and 68 respectively for the current majority. In this case, Vannacci’s candidates would number 20 in the Chamber of Deputies and 10 in the Senate.