The right’s ‘theory’ on the candidate: even losing is a success

There is no Chiambretti descending from the ceiling to remind the singer on stage that, whatever happens, it will be a success, as in a Sanremo festival of many years ago. However, the centre-right leaders know full well, in the run-up to the local elections, that for them it will be a success in any case. Even in the event of defeat – a crushing defeat. In fact, it is highly likely given the current field of candidates. Even – or perhaps especially – in the city of Milan, already the moral capital, but above all the economic capital. Success will go to whoever manages to field ‘their’ mayoral candidate: whatever happens at the ballot box is another matter. And in any case, we’re starting from 17 points down and facing stronger opponents.

How the view of politics changes over the years. Once upon a time, no one would have wanted to take the blame for a debacle in a major city like Milan. Now, however, the prevailing theory is that participation is a value in itself – not for Decubertinian reasons, but for purely mathematical ones: more councillors, higher percentages, greater visibility. All this with an eye to the second round, which is ultimately what matters in the centralism that now pervades everything like a weed: the general election, which may take place in autumn 2027, well separated from the local elections thanks to the general election in August, which will serve as a stopgap measure for the centre-right to make people forget the defeats that are already on the cards.

Forza Italia took a while to grasp Maurizio Lupi’s strategy, but eventually got there: ‘Why on earth should we hand over the lead and the surplus of votes to someone who’s treading right on our toes as moderates?’, regional coordinator Alessandro Sorte and national coordinator Antonio Tajani must have said to each other. And so they dug their heels in: no, Lupi is out of the question. On the other side stood the ever-present Ignazio La Russa, the party’s second-in-command as well as the state’s second-in-command: yes, Lupi it is. The deadlock was broken only when the party’s leader—and head of government—was informed by the Northern League that if Maurizio Lupi were to take the post, he would be ‘under the control’ of Fratelli d’Italia. The logic was clear: if the ‘brothers’ tried to capture Milan, the Region could not be theirs. Given that the Lombardy Region is what truly matters, two presidential feet slammed on the brakes. Not least because who on earth would want to deal with the city’s problems – the potholes, the straitened budgets, the urban planning investigations, the traffic wardens who never take to the streets, security, and the Maranza who know nothing of political colours – when you could have a far larger budget (the Region), broader powers, and legislative authority thanks to Title V, which resolves so many problems?

The combined effect of these two factors has brought to the fore Matteo Perego di Cremnago, a figure not particularly well known to the people of Milan (he was not re-elected to Parliament in 2022). He is extremely moderate, close to Luigi Berlusconi – who wanted him on the list – a decent chap and father of three. He is level-headed and polite. This is the second time it has been suggested he could become mayor (the first was five years ago). According to parliamentary ushers, Giorgia Meloni takes a fancy to her Under-Secretary of State for Defence, as does Minister Crosetto. He immediately began touring the neighbourhoods, was cheered by all the Forza Italia families (who, in Milan, stand apart, resembling a monolith), is well-liked by the family (the only one that matters in FI) and has therefore begun his publicity campaign on Mediaset. The ‘Azzurri’s’ ostracism of a Forza Italia member like Pietro Tatarella remains an incomprehensible mystery, given that he already had a following in Milan, a story to tell and his own experience. But that is how it is: he was never even brought to the table with the allies. It remains to be seen whether the two will be able to collaborate or whether Tatarella – as it seems today – might even opt for a solo run (or alongside Antonio Civita). Tatarella’s continued presence in the race (and that of Carmelo Burgio, should no agreement be reached with Futuro Nazionale) would mean automatically handing the mayor’s seat to the left, which might take it even more for granted than it already does to a great extent. But the Chiambretti factor remains. Meanwhile, alongside Perego, Silvia Sardone—chosen at the Lega’s polling stations—and, of course, Maurizio Lupi remain in the running. Rumour has it that Alessandro Sorte has torn up the old poll designed to show just how strong the former PD senator Carlo Cottarelli was, and that another has been commissioned. The cynics murmur: how can it possibly emerge from this that Sardone has less electoral support than Perego? A pointless question, unless the results are not made public but circulated from hand to hand like samizdat, or tamed like the Pravda. Meanwhile, the centre-right remains at minus 17.