Alberta is in Canada to stay

Three out of four Albertans have rejected the idea of holding a referendum on independence from Canada. Yet the province, which boasts the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, has no shortage of reasons to be frustrated with the way the Ottawa government is handling the issue. The Premier herself, the Conservative Danielle Smith, criticises former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for an environmentalist agenda aimed at reducing crude oil production. It was she who called for the consultation in the first place, with the stated aim of exposing the independence campaigners’ bluff. During the campaign, she pointed out that the separation process would initially cost around 400 billion Canadian dollars (253 billion euros), to which would be added between 25 and 50 billion dollars a year.

Clear support for the independence cause, however, came from the Trump administration, as part of the President’s obsession with incorporating Canada into the United States. Separatist leaders were received at the State Department and given advice by Republican politicians; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent himself described the province as a ‘natural partner’ of the United States, and Elon Musk posted a message on X in favour of secession. However, as was the case with the vote in the last Canadian general election, being associated with Trump has had a counterproductive effect in this referendum too. To present a united front against the referendum, former provincial premiers Jason Kenney of the Conservative Party and Rachel Notley of the left-wing New Democratic Party appeared together on the same stage, setting aside the bitter ideological rivalry that usually characterises local politics. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Alberta, also visited the province, pledging to improve relations between the province and central government, after reaching an agreement with Danielle Smith to promote a new oil pipeline to boost exports.