Hormuz is no longer enough. To put pressure on the United States, Tehran still has the Houthis

Ever since news began to circulate that the flow of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz was approaching pre-war levels, Iran has responded by resuming attacks on ships carrying crude oil and refined products from the Gulf. According to the maritime monitoring firm Kpler, last week the Tehran regime targeted at least nine vessels in the Strait, reaching a level of violence not seen for months and causing a further decline in the transit of crude oil through the waterway. During the same period, the war between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed Yemeni forces intensified, with the Houthis targeting Saudi oil infrastructure. Attacks on refineries are having a particularly significant impact on fuel prices. 

It is for this reason that, although ships are transporting almost the same quantity of crude oil out of the Strait of Hormuz as they did before the war with Iran, they are carrying very few barrels of the refined product that is most in demand: diesel. “These actions continue to demonstrate Iran’s intent to assert its presence along key transit routes and to maintain pressure on transiting vessels,” stated the US Navy’s Joint Maritime Information Centre. Tehran has no intention of relinquishing its leverage over Hormuz and is pursuing a policy of threats to put pressure on President Trump ahead of the mid-term elections. On Thursday, Trump assured his followers on his social media platform Truth that the United States “will not attack Iran at any time before the mid-term elections” and that oil “is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities”, whilst, according to publications such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is said to have drawn up plans to attack Iran before the US election.

Axios journalist Barak Ravid, citing US and Israeli sources, has written that new attacks could take place before the US mid-term elections and perhaps even before the Israeli elections, scheduled for a week earlier. Intelligence sources in Israel tell us that a resumption of fighting against Iran would also trigger a wider conflict with the Houthis, who, this time, are unlikely to spare Israel from Iranian missiles. “Despite the economic pressure on Iran, which is having an effect, there is no sign that Iran is ready to change course,” he tells Il Foglio. “Trump may therefore be forced to opt for military action once again to get what he wants from the Iranians. The problem is that there will be Iranian retaliation if the United States decides to attack Tehran’s nuclear sites or energy infrastructure again. There is no doubt that Iran will react, and this, at least in the immediate term, will push oil prices even higher.”