Sánchez is weak, but history shows that with him, the game is never over

“It’s about to end, but I want to see it with my own eyes because it reminds me of the villain in films: just when you think it’s all over, he grabs you by the ankle.” This description by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of the Community of Madrid and Pedro Sánchez’s bitter enemy, is the most comprehensive political characterisation of the Spanish Socialist Prime Minister. Because it perfectly captures his stubbornness, which, on the one hand, instils hope in his supporters even when all seems lost, and, on the other, fuels the anxiety of his opponents even when victory appears all but assured. “I want to see the final credits and know that it’s really over,” Ayuso said on the eve of the vote on 23 July 2023, when Sánchez was written off. Yet he managed to cling on to another term in office and is now trying to do so again by calling a snap election. 

Sánchez himself has built his identity on this very tenacity, starting with "Manual of Resistance", the title of his autobiography published in 2019, which recounts his recapture of the PSOE leadership after being ousted in 2016 for opposing the party’s decision to form a government led by Mariano Rajoy of the People’s Party. Sánchez toured Spain in a Peugeot, won the leadership contest against the party establishment and rebuilt the party in his own image. In 2018, he reached the Moncloa Palace following a motion of no confidence. In 2019, after a couple of elections that failed to produce a majority, he managed to form the first coalition government in democratic Spain’s history with the far-left Podemos. In 2023, following a heavy defeat in the regional elections, he brought forward the end of the parliamentary term. It really did seem like the end, but it was not to be. The People’s Party, led by the unremarkable Alberto Núñez Feijóo, won, but failed to secure an absolute majority with Vox. Sánchez thus pulled another rabbit out of the hat: he broadened the coalition to include Basque and Catalan separatists, from both the right and the left. With external support from EH Bildu, the political wing of former ETA terrorists, and the secessionists of Junts – whose leader, Carles Puigdemont, is a fugitive in Belgium and to whom he offers amnesty in exchange for votes – he manages to form a new government.

This parliamentary term has been an ordeal. The government has never really had a parliamentary majority, to the extent that – in breach of the Constitution – a Budget Bill was never even tabled. To this were added legal scandals, with allegations of corruption involving members of his family, such as his brother David, who was convicted of rigging a competition to become a conductor in a socialist-run province, and his wife Begoña Gómez, who is currently on trial for influence-peddling. Then there were the undeclared jewels found in the safe of former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – regarded as a ‘moral beacon’ by the PSOE – as part of an investigation into influence peddling. Not to mention the corruption trials that have sent the PSOE’s former organisational secretaries, José Luis Ábalos and Santos Cerdán – two of Sánchez’s staunchest supporters since the days of the Peugeot journey – to prison. Then came the Ceuta crisis, with the arrival in the Spanish exclave of 80,000 migrants from Morocco: a political and humanitarian catastrophe. Amidst all this were the lost regional elections and falling poll ratings. It really did seem to be all over, but Sánchez has always held his ground against the advance of the far right.

As soon as protests over rising housing costs began – sparked by the eviction of elderly Maricarmen – he capitalised on them. He tabled two decrees in Parliament, knowing full well they would be rejected. Consequently, the public, angry at a problem that had escalated during the eight years of socialist government, took their anger out on the opposition. Sánchez then immediately brought forward the elections scheduled for 2027, seizing the only political window of opportunity in which he can tip the balance of the election campaign in his favour, before further bad news on the legal front. The Prime Minister also took his increasingly fragmented allies on the left by surprise, who now risk being sidelined by the PSOE. This time around, winning the election will be even more difficult, given that the polls show a large majority for the PP and Vox. But Sánchez can certainly aim for a good result, one that would re-establish him as the only alternative to the right after the election. In any case, Ayuso and the other opponents will be keeping a close eye on his ankle right up until the final whistle.