Everyone’s against Merz. There are plenty of challengers, but no one is actually stepping forward

Berlin. Taking potshots at Friedrich Merz has become a national pastime in Germany: the opposition, the SPD – a government ally – and even the CDU are all criticising him, but no one dares to step forward to undermine him. The chancellorship – which is, after all, guaranteed by the Constitution with a strong mandate and extensive powers – is coveted by many, yet no one dares stage a coup. It is too politically toxic at the moment. And the situation both within and beyond Germany’s borders is too perilous: the war in Ukraine, the war in Iran, the conflict in Israel. At home, the economy is struggling, exports are falling, industry—particularly the car sector—is at a standstill, and the spectre of deindustrialisation looms large. On top of that, there is the straitjacket of an unprecedented reform programme, on the necessity of which everyone agrees, but which no one wants to sign off on or take responsibility for.

Following the CDU’s disastrous performance in the regional elections in September – Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg and Berlin – calls for the Chancellor’s ousting have gained momentum. But removing a Chancellor is no easy task: either he resigns, or a constructive vote of no confidence is required in the Bundestag, followed by the nomination and election of a new Chancellor: there is no room for a crisis in the dark. On paper, the field of candidates is extensive, and for weeks the media have been indulging in a colourful ‘chancellor prediction game’, but no one has put themselves forward. Indeed, at least formally, assurances of confidence in the Chancellor have been forthcoming. In pole position is Hendrik Wüst, Minister-President (Governor) of North Rhine-Westphalia. The opposite of Merz: a people-pleaser, a mediator, open to dialogue (in the Merkel mould). Except that there is an election in his state in 2027, and he cannot simply step out of the limelight. Furthermore, there are doubts as to whether a ‘soft’ candidate is the right choice in turbulent times. Another potential contender would be the Governor of Bavaria and CSU leader, Markus Söder. He is certainly keen on the chancellorship, but it remains to be seen whether the CDU would be willing to cede the position to the CSU. The shortlist also includes Boris Rhein, Governor of Hesse, who is well-regarded in his role but points out that the Chancellor is in office and was elected for four years. Finally, there is the option of Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, who has been highly praised for his efforts to tackle illegal immigration: he could take over from Merz and act as a stopgap until the next designated chancellor (Wüst or Söder) is appointed.

In reality, all the leading figures in the Union (CDU/CSU) have, on several occasions and even in written letters – even after the debacle in Berlin – expressed their confidence in the Chancellor. How sincere this is, and for how long, is unclear: it may have an expiry date. Ever since he was elected Chancellor sixteen months ago, Merz has never been popular; he has never inspired any sympathy. The mistrust with which he was met from the outset is also due to the many mistakes he has made, whether through inexperience or his lack of empathy. His poll ratings are extremely low. He is the least popular chancellor in the Federal Republic – even less so than the former Social Democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz, which says it all. Even within the CDU, long shaped by Angela Merkel, Merz has never been particularly popular, apart from among the conservative wing and the business community. His election as CDU leader and chancellor candidate was more a matter of necessity than anything else – a hope that, by changing tack, he might lift the party out of the doldrums into which it had fallen after sixteen years under Merkel.

Yesterday too, as on Sunday immediately after the first exit poll, Merz made it clear at a press conference with Stefan Evers, the CDU leader in Berlin (which came second with 18.8 per cent, behind Die Linke), that he intends to remain in his post and press ahead with the reforms, not because they win votes but because they are necessary for Germany. We are witnessing a shift in the political balance, with the centre weakened and ‘radical destructive forces seeking to overturn the system, now at 40 per cent’, he said, also alluding to the ‘deep concerns’ amongst Jews and businesspeople: ‘We will do everything we can to safeguard the lives of Jews in Germany’. No one in the party, “neither yesterday nor today”, he emphasised, has asked him to face the consequences (resignation). Whether this confidence will stand the test of time is another matter; events are unfolding at a dizzying pace. Today will be the litmus test: Merz is meeting the CDU-CSU group in the Bundestag, and MPs, anxious about their seats, may grill him.