NATO is on high alert following hybrid attacks

Brussels. Intelligence services, analysts and NATO officials fear that Russia may test Article 5 with a kinetic attack against a member of the Alliance. In the first half of 2027, a window of opportunity will open which Vladimir Putin may decide to exploit.

Hybrid attacks against European countries have become the “new normal”, von der Leyen said following the failed attack on Leipzig Airport in early August, which Germany attributed to Russia. The term used to describe Russia’s operations in the so-called ‘grey zone’ – the space just below the threshold of conflict, where there is scope to deny responsibility – which aim to destabilise European countries, has already changed. The High Representative, Kaja Kallas, coined the term ‘kinetic hybrid attacks’ following the Leipzig incident. However, this definition still allows one to avoid resorting to the most extreme measures of deterrence doctrine, thereby avoiding the risk of military escalation. A full-scale kinetic attack would cross the threshold into conflict, forcing NATO to react if it is to honour its pledge to collectively defend “every centimetre of its territory” and preserve its deterrence. A window of opportunity for Putin could open up at the end of the year, thanks to a series of events far from Ukraine. NATO’s assessment is that Russia is militarily weak. This is demonstrated by the stalemate faced by its troops in the Donbas. But a weak Putin may be even more dangerous. By autumn, the front line will in all likelihood be frozen. In November, the US mid-term elections will take place: a defeat for Donald Trump will make the American president an even more unpredictable ‘lame duck’, and for the next two years the Americans will be focused on the 2028 presidential election.

This will strengthen isolationist tendencies within the Trump administration, which by the end of the year will inform its NATO allies of the timetable for the withdrawal of its forces from Europe. An accelerated withdrawal of US troops and conventional capabilities will leave the Europeans in a difficult position. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte assures us that, thanks to increased defence spending and the strengthening of national armies, European countries will be able to compensate for the American disengagement. But it will take time. Currently, without the United States, European countries are capable of sustaining a high-intensity conflict for three weeks. Germany has launched a €150 billion rearmament programme, which will enable it to be well-armed, but it does not have enough troops for a war with Russia. Poland, too, is lagging behind in terms of recruitment. Germany and Poland are expected to provide the European pillar of NATO with its two strongest land forces.

The concern within NATO is the transition phase that will begin between the start of the US withdrawal and the completion of European rearmament in terms of personnel and capabilities. It is during this period that the threat lies, because US announcements regarding their stance in Europe will provide Putin with a deadline by which he must act. Few believe that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine can lead to a ceasefire. Conversely, with the front line frozen and 1.5 million troops mobilised, Putin may be tempted to test NATO’s Article 5 on collective defence, not least to bolster his domestic popularity and stifle any dissent within his inner circle.

There is a factor entirely internal to the EU that is contributing to this window of opportunity for Putin. 2027 will be an election year for several key countries, at a time when in Germany Chancellor Friedrich Merz is severely destabilised by the success of the far-right AfD party. Presidential elections in France and parliamentary elections in Spain, Poland and Italy: far-right nationalist movements, but also those on the far left, are gaining ground in the polls. Some are pro-Russian; many are actively supported by the Kremlin’s propaganda machine. By fuelling the narrative of war, Putin is playing into their hands. Nationalists in power in Italy or Spain will be less inclined to send their soldiers to defend a Baltic state or Romania. Marine Le Pen’s arrival at the Élysée Palace in France could lead to the complete unravelling of Europe.

The European rearmament plan, supported by the EU through the Safe programme, aims to prepare for a war in 2030. In reality, the test of war could come much sooner: in 2027. This scenario is no longer science fiction. Several European intelligence services believe that Russia will test NATO’s Article 5. One of the possibilities raised by the intelligence services is a limited kinetic attack against a European NATO member state. The CIA Director, John Ratcliffe’s, trip to Moscow on 25 August may have served to issue a warning to Putin to deter him.

The Baltic states are a potential target, although some believe that NATO’s current presence and their state of preparedness will deter Russia from launching an attack there. Poland is on high alert for potential attacks on its border posts (the use of drones on the Ukrainian-Polish border against trains and petrol stations corroborates these suspicions). Warsaw also fears the vulnerability of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. But within NATO, there are those who are looking at more vulnerable countries. Romania could be the target of a targeted operation via the Black Sea, where Russian maritime drones are already operating, or via Moldova, where Russian forces are present in the breakaway region of Transnistria.