AfD faces another test in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Berlin. On the left-hand side, ‘The woman against the blue’; on the right, ‘Ready for the blue shift’. These are the slogans of the two main contenders in Sunday’s elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the eastern federal state known as ‘Meck-Pomm’ by the Germans. ‘La donna contro il blu’ is the outgoing regional president, Manuela Schwesig, born in 1974 in eastern Brandenburg, who has led the government in Schwerin since 2017, whilst ‘blu’ is the colour of the sovereignist AfD party, fresh from its triumphant 43.8 per cent share of the vote on 6 September in the equally eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. While the CDU governed in Magdeburg until recently, the region including Schwerin is a Social Democratic stronghold. However, Frau Schwesig prefers not to be reminded of this: an SPD member since 2003 and a figure in the pro-Russian faction led by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the governor carefully cultivates an image of independence from a party in the midst of a historic crisis. Popular and open to dialogue even with those who do not support her, the governor has always identified with the region and its voters, never with the party apparatus. Her slogan in 2021 – when she was re-elected, distanced herself from the CDU and brought on board the Social Communists of Die Linke – was “The woman for MV”, from the initials of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

Running against her is Leif-Erik Holm, a sovereigntist MP in the Bundestag, born in 1970 in Schwerin (he’s on home turf), the son of an electrician and a nurse. A father of four, Holm speaks clearly, having worked for many years as a radio presenter. First a regional MP, then a national MP, and a former mayoral candidate for Schwerin (though he was defeated by a Social Democrat), Holm has been a member of the AfD since its inception, when the Hamburg-based economist Bernd Lucke founded the party in opposition to the Greek bailout (funded by German money). With a reassuring demeanour and tone, the candidate cultivates the image of a ‘nice bloke’ and describes the AfD as a ‘bourgeois and conservative’ party, light years away from the subversive leanings of some of his counterparts in Saxony or Thuringia. When the regional chair of Die Linke accused the AfD of being an extremist organisation, Holm replied: “You know as well as I do that we are not right-wing extremists: that’s quite clear here in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.” It is true that the AfD in Schwerin and the surrounding area has not been formally classified by the Regional Office for the Protection of the Constitution as either a ‘suspected case’ or a ‘confirmed far-right organisation’, but Holm himself has consistently defended, amongst others, Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia who is considered the party’s most extreme figure.

The contest between the governor and her challenger appears even less ideological than elsewhere: on several occasions, the two have spoken of development – Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is the Cinderella of Germany’s 16 Länder – and of energy, both taking jabs at the federal government (which is why Frau Schwesig keeps her distance from Berlin). She has promised an investment plan she has dubbed MV 2035, featuring more schools and more nurseries. He, in a state left out in the cold by the direct Russian-German Nord Stream twin gas pipeline, has proposed discouraging renewable energy, closing the door to migrants and asylum seekers, and severing ties between the state and regional TV channels.

The latest polls show the AfD leading with around 37 per cent of the vote, but the SPD (or rather Manuela Schwesig’s list) is close behind at 33–34 per cent, up from 28 per cent a couple of weeks ago. The governor is hoping for support from Die Linke (currently polling at around 10 per cent) and perhaps the Greens (struggling to clear the 5 per cent threshold). The same applies to the red-brown coalition of the BSW. We’ve learnt this by now: the more parties that clear the 5 per cent threshold, the more difficult it is to form a stable government.

Whatever happens, Chancellor Friderich Merz’s CDU appears set to suffer further: according to Insa, its support could halve from 13.3 per cent to 7 per cent, whilst Forse suggests the decline should stabilise at 10 per cent. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU was and is likely to remain a marginal force, yet Merz could really do with some encouragement. As this is not likely to come from Schwerin, yesterday eight CDU state governors put it in writing that the country needs “a stable federal government capable of acting with its own majority in the Bundestag”. A statement that the Bavarian Minister-President, the Christian Social Markus Söder, did not sign; however, he – widely regarded as one of the potential successors to a resigning Merz – had already expressed solidarity with the Chancellor the day before. In words.