Canada’s bid wins the State of the Union and paves the way for it to become the first associate member

Strasbourg. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, used her State of the Union address to respond positively to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s offer of an unprecedented alliance between the European Union and Canada. “Europe and Canada believe in democracy. They believe that power does not belong to the strongest, the richest or those who shout the loudest, but to all of us: that democracies are free to choose with whom to cooperate,” said von der Leyen before the European Parliament and Carney himself. “We want the EU’s relations with Canada to reach the highest possible level,” she explained: “I would like to begin the process of welcoming Canada as the EU’s first associate member.” The announcement came as a surprise. Von der Leyen’s aides had explained that the President was sceptical about Carney’s proposal, because the EU does not consider itself a “middle power”.

Some Member States are opposed to deepening relations too closely with a distant third country, as they regard enlargement and relations with closer European neighbours, such as the United Kingdom, as a priority. However, the Parliament’s plenary session responded with a standing ovation and the longest round of applause in the history of the State of the Union address. Carney, who was symbolically seated in the seats reserved for members of EU Member State governments, will respond tomorrow with a speech, again before the European Parliament. The State of the Union is one of the most important events on the European political calendar. The Commission President is called upon to set out her vision on current challenges, outline a vision for the future and present the programme for the coming year. For von der Leyen, today’s address was her sixth State of the Union. The 2026 edition focused on heatwaves, artificial intelligence and China. Ukraine and European defence remain on the agenda, although they have become less prominent than in the past. As in previous years, von der Leyen made numerous announcements whilst providing few details.

The details of what von der Leyen has described as “an Alliance for the Future” between the EU and Canada are not yet known. Ten Member States, including Italy and France, have yet to ratify the CETA free trade agreement, which is expected to evolve into the new pact. This is indicative of the difficulties ahead in negotiations that are set to refocus on trade and investment, whilst expanding to cover several other sectors. Legally speaking, the status of ‘associated member’ of the EU does not exist. Article 217 of the Treaty merely provides for the possibility of the EU entering into an association with third countries that entails mutual rights and obligations, joint action and special procedures. The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had proposed ‘associate member’ status for Ukraine as an intermediate step towards accession, raising suspicions that the intention was to keep it in the waiting room indefinitely.

Expanding the EU to include Canada is considered impossible. However, following his speech in Davos earlier this year on the need for an alliance between middle powers to counter hegemonic powers – and even more so after the breakdown of negotiations with Donald Trump and the escalation of US tariffs – Carney has made an offer that the EU cannot afford to refuse in the current geopolitical climate. “We will work on smart manufacturing, establish a technological alliance, integrate our defence industrial bases, and make the Arctic a joint flagship project; we will address energy, critical minerals, batteries, as well as AI, quantum technologies, cyber security and economic security”, said von der Leyen, noting that the EU and Canada are already presenting a “united front” on Ukraine.

It speaks volumes about the state of the Union that the part of von der Leyen’s speech that generated the most enthusiasm was the section on Canada. The Commission President sought to emphasise climate change (following the summer heatwaves, the EU must accelerate climate adaptation as well as reaffirm its emissions reduction targets), artificial intelligence (no new rules, as the EU’s AI Act and cooperation with developers of state-of-the-art models are sufficient) and trade imbalances with China (the Commission is banking on dialogue, hoping it will bear fruit quickly). Competitiveness and industry have slipped down von der Leyen’s list of priorities. The Commission President has also shown a certain weariness regarding Ukraine (von der Leyen limited herself to promising humanitarian aid for the winter and a strengthening of air defences). With Russia’s war becoming “less and less hybrid and less and less merely a threat”, the focus is on European security. Von der Leyen proposed the creation of a European Security Council involving Norway, the United Kingdom and Ukraine (an idea long advocated by Emmanuel Macron) and the introduction of an EU Article 4 similar to that of NATO (which provides for consultations in the event of a security threat).

Only between the lines of her speech did von der Leyen allude to the EU’s internal enemies, which loom large over next year’s elections in France, Italy, Poland and Spain. “Whether we are talking about ultra-nationalists or anti-Europeans, or interference or disinformation from Russia: the name may change, but the aim is the same. These actors scorn Europe’s values and want to tear European unity to pieces,” said the Commission President. “Let us not limit ourselves to fighting these threats: let us fight together for our vision of Europe.” How? No details were given. But to mark the 70th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome next year, von der Leyen will convene a “Congress of Europe” modelled on the one opened by Winston Churchill in 1948 in The Hague. Von der Leyen’s Congress will bring together “thinkers and writers, artists and scientists, citizens and civil society”.