Rockets, drones, acts of sabotage. Russia’s hybrid war is becoming less and less hybrid

Brussels. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has accused Russia of an “irresponsible act” after a Russian frigate fired two warning rockets at a Danish military helicopter in the Baltic Sea. Also today, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Lithuanian airspace, which was in all likelihood Russian. The day provided yet another series of examples of what Ursula von der Leyen had described as the “new normal” following the attribution to Russia of a failed attack on Leipzig Airport: the proliferation of Russian hybrid operations, which are coming ever closer to the threshold of conflict. “These are not isolated incidents,” said the Commission President. “They are part of a broader strategy of Russian aggression and provocation against Europe.”

Lithuania has not publicly attributed the incursion of the drone shot down by the Italian NATO fighter jet to Russia. However, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence has explained that the drone was armed, entered from Belarus, remained in the airspace for about half an hour and flew over the outskirts of built-up areas before being intercepted. Was it Russian? According to sources at the Italian Ministry of Defence, if it is definitively identified as a Shahed, “it cannot have come from anywhere else”. Guido Crosetto met his Lithuanian counterpart, Robertas Kaunas, today at the Siauliai airbase, where the Italian Eurofighters operating as part of the NATO mission are stationed. “The Italian pilots intervened and shot down a threat likely originating from Russia. The presence of Italian aircraft here is clear proof of the value the Atlantic Alliance holds for us and what the word ‘allies’ means to us,” said Crosetto.

In Denmark, the incident involving the Russian frigate and the military helicopter took place in international waters. The helicopter had been dispatched to photograph the Russian vessel at a time when countries in the region are on high alert due to the increase in hybrid attacks. Similar reconnaissance operations had been carried out regularly in recent months, following the same procedure. Russia has accused Denmark of carrying out “dangerous manoeuvres”. In reality, the Russian frigate made no attempts to establish radio contact, nor did it issue any other form of warning, before firing its rockets, which passed just a few metres from the Danish helicopter. The Danish Defence Minister, Jeppe Bruus, explained that the Russians “are more willing to take risks”, as demonstrated by the failed drone attack on Leipzig Airport in early August and the attack on a Ukrainian train on the Polish border this week.

“Russia’s actions are aimed at intimidating and dividing us. They will not succeed. We will not waver,” said Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Yet they are managing to sow chaos, fear and doubt. In Lithuania, local residents spoke of a night marked by fear. In the Netherlands, a series of acts of sabotage has paralysed a significant part of the rail network. Local media suspect farmers are responsible, but the authorities have not yet attributed the sabotage to anyone. Moscow “is testing our readiness and our resolve. Russia will find that our resolve only grows stronger”, said von der Leyen. The Commission President, who is due to deliver her State of the Union address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg tomorrow, reiterated her commitment to strengthening “our collective deterrence and defence”. In reality, the EU has no deterrence capabilities of its own. Responding to a hybrid attack is not part of von der Leyen’s plans.

In recent months, there have been incremental changes to NATO’s deterrence doctrine. Attacks are being attributed, as was the case with the one on Leipzig Airport. Drones are being intercepted and shot down, as happened today in Lithuania. Russian frigates are being observed and photographed. To thwart underwater sabotage operations, naval assets are being deployed to intercept Russian vessels, as happened in Sweden this spring. But several analysts doubt that this is sufficient in the face of a war that is becoming less and less ‘hybrid’. “Europeans must prepare for an escalation of Russian attacks: what happened in Leipzig could herald an aggression of this kind on a much larger scale, involving more countries and including information operations, cyber-attacks (…) and possibly even the occupation of parts of territory,” explained Michel Duclos of the Institut Montaigne in a statement. “Neither within NATO nor within the EU is a European counterstrategy being developed to address the risk of what might be termed a ‘high-intensity hybrid war’,” wrote Duclos.