Spain shifts to the right following the Ceuta disaster

Madrid. A poll carried out and published yesterday by El País sounds like yet another wake-up call for the Spanish left – and beyond. On the government’s handling of the Ceuta crisis, the public have given it a failing mark across all four assessment criteria: cohesion, transparency, effectiveness and speed. The weakest point is the slowness of the response, considered ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ by two out of three Spaniards. This result comes as little surprise to anyone who watched in astonishment as Prime Minister Sánchez chose, despite the gravity of the situation, to go on holiday on 1 August and only reappear at the end of the month to convene the crisis cabinet.

And to those who see in his every move the calculated manoeuvring of a cold strategist who knows how to capitalise on extreme polarisation, the poll suggests that this time the Prime Minister risks bringing everyone into agreement – but in a negative sense. Whilst the percentage of critics is extremely high amongst declared voters of the People’s Party (PP) and Vox, it is also rising amongst left-wing voters. The most significant finding is the response to the question of whether it is more appropriate to tighten border controls – even at the cost of preventing the most vulnerable people from entering – or to prioritise reception: the former option wins out over the latter by 70 to 20, leaving only 10 per cent undecided. More specifically, 51.8 per cent of PSOE voters, 41.9 per cent of voters for the far-left Sumar coalition and 26.8 per cent of Podemos voters are calling for strict controls. And amongst those who voted for Sánchez in 2023, 6.8 per cent say they will vote for the PP, whilst 4.3 per cent will vote for Vox.

Santiago Abascal’s far-right party is the one that generally appears to be benefiting most from the crisis. In the voting intentions polls, Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP is still in first place, though it is showing little growth. It is the combined total with Vox’s votes that takes both parties past the 50 per cent mark, but even amongst Feijóo’s own supporters, one in four says Abascal would handle the migration issue better. Wherever the swimmers from Ceuta end up, the turning point in the Spanish electorate seems irreversible.