The “No” vote won in Iceland’s EU referendum. What does this mean for Brussels?

The Icelanders do not trust the EU. In fact, they distrust it so much that they have even rejected, by a public vote, the very idea of entering into negotiations for EU membership. As reported by the public broadcaster Rvu after 190,000 votes had been counted, the ‘No’ vote won, with 52.5 per cent of the vote. This result was bolstered more than expected by votes from overseas constituencies (particularly from the United States) and, surprisingly, by those from younger voters.

So, whilst this vote does not substantially change anything for Reykjavik – because Iceland was outside the EU (but within the single market and the Schengen Area) and remains outside the EU (but within the single market and the Schengen Area) – for Brussels, on the other hand, everything changes.

Because from now on, Brussels will have to come to terms with the fact that a country which has practically all the right credentials to join the EU – and which, in fact, already shares two of the Union’s pillars with the EU, namely the single market and open borders – has rejected not only, and not so much, the idea of political accession, but even that of starting accession talks. In short, Iceland does not even want to talk to the EU.

Is the mistrust, the lack of confidence and the negative perception of the EU really that widespread outside the corridors of Brussels? It would appear so. And yes, of course, the margin of victory was narrow. But then again, so was the Brexit vote. Yet that did not make it any less humiliating for Europe. A Europe that now finds itself exposed by this rejection. A rejection that the accession applications of candidate countries (Montenegro, Albania, the Balkans and, mutatis mutandis, Ukraine) or prospective candidates (Moldova, Georgia) can only partially alleviate. Not least because the list of defections and rejections is beginning to grow substantially. Especially when added to the votes that anti-EU movements and parties garner in every election across European countries.

So, perhaps, the problem is not fishing, or defence, or the possibility of having representation in the parliament that decides on regulations which Iceland, as a member of the Single Market, already follows. No. The problem, at this stage, is Europe’s credibility: that of its project, its policies and its leaders. In Iceland, they have understood this so well that they have managed to explain it to everyone else. Now we will have to see whether Brussels understands it too.