Iceland will decide whether it is worth holding talks with the EU

29 August is the date set for the Icelandic referendum on the EU: 272,000 Icelanders eligible to vote will be asked to decide not whether they want to join the European Union, but only whether they believe it is worth starting negotiations for possible accession, or whether it is not even worth the effort.

The extreme caution evident in this question alone (not ‘do you want to join the EU’, but ‘do you at least want to discuss it’) is indicative of just how sensitive the issue is. It also shows how unappealing the EU is perceived to be at this point in history.

The polls suggest an extremely close result: the ‘Yes’ vote is predicted, at best, to win with a result of between 51 and 52 per cent; at worst, to lose, with a result of between 47 and 49 per cent. The polls are so evenly balanced that even pollsters are throwing up their hands in despair, as the results fall well within the margin of error. So who knows? The fact that 15 per cent of eligible voters have already cast their votes by post does little to untangle the situation, but merely confirms that the issue is deeply felt and that turnout could be high.

Much of how things turn out will, in fact, depend on who votes: in theory, the urban population of Reykjavík – which alone accounts for almost half the island’s population – is expected to vote ‘Yes’. However, the rest of the country – the more rural areas that rely on fishing or on Chinese investment in the geothermal sector – may instead vote ‘No’.

For this reason, too, the Icelandic agency Maskina has recommended treating the initial results due to arrive during the night between Saturday and Sunday with great caution (polling stations will close at 22:00 Icelandic time, which is midnight here). This is because the most remote constituencies will be the first to close and report their results, which are likely to favour the ‘No’ vote. Then, as Reykjavík completes its count, the ‘Yes’ vote is expected to gain ground, although it is unclear whether this will be enough to secure victory.

Should the referendum result in a victory for the ‘yes’ camp – which is also supported by Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadóttir – then Iceland could (though it would not be obliged to do so) resume negotiations on the country’s accession to the EU. Otherwise, these negotiations – which had already been initiated in the past, only to be halted by the island’s conservative government in 2013 – would not even be considered.