Trump turns to sanctions to target Iran following the failure of the failed war

The Trump administration has announced a new sanctions campaign against Iran, dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”, with the aim of severing all economic ties that still prop up the regime. The measure comes at a delicate time: the war that began in February, which was expected to lead swiftly to Tehran’s surrender, has instead reached a stalemate, whilst the Iranian economy is suffering severely and the US economy is feeling the effects of rising oil and gas prices.

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the plan aims to cut off all sources of funding for the regime, from the cryptocurrencies used by the Revolutionary Guards to gold transfers, from airlines to shipments of oil and military components. The Treasury has announced sanctions against sixty entities involved in nuclear and cyber activities, as well as in the sale of oil. Bessent described the operation as “sustained” and called on international partners to join the United States, though he did not specify which countries had been contacted or what measures were expected of them.

The novelty, however, lies not only in the content of the sanctions. As the New York Times has observed, the White House is reversing the traditional sequence of US pressure: usually, the process begins with diplomacy, moves on to sanctions and only as a last resort does it resort to military force. Trump, on the other hand, chose to bomb Iran almost immediately, in an attempt to force Tehran to hand over its stocks of enriched uranium and perhaps bring about the collapse of the government. The operation failed to achieve its objectives: the uranium remains in the targeted depots, the regime has survived – albeit under new leadership, that of Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, who was killed in the initial attacks – and the war has resulted in the deaths of eighteen Americans and hundreds or thousands of Iranians. According to independent analysts, the costs exceed one hundred billion dollars.

Now, with few alternatives remaining, the Trump Administration is reverting to sanctions. But their effectiveness depends on one key player: China. Beijing purchased over 80 per cent of Iranian oil in 2025 and controls banks and refineries that enable Tehran to circumvent the restrictions. Targeting China would mean opening a new diplomatic front just one month before Xi Jinping’s official visit to Washington, and so far there are no signs that the White House is prepared to do so. Without Chinese involvement, many experts believe the operation cannot achieve its stated objectives.

Iran, for its part, has dismissed the American threats as “big talk” with no real consequences. The authorities maintain that trading partners will not follow Washington’s lead and have warned that, if the “economic war” continues, not a single drop of oil will pass through the Persian Gulf. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, already the scene of disruptions to maritime traffic, therefore remain a source of pressure for Tehran.

The domestic situation in Iran, however, is critical. The currency has hit new lows, inflation is sky-high and daily life has become unbearable for many citizens. According to some analysts quoted by the Washington Post, the economic hardship is real and set to increase, but it is by no means certain that this will lead to political change or a diplomatic agreement.

Trump had promised that the war would swiftly lead to Iran’s surrender and perhaps to regime change. He later admitted that the population had neither the weapons nor the organisation to rebel. In presenting the new measures, Bessent urged Iranian soldiers to ask themselves whether their commanders were leading the country to ruin, drawing a parallel with the fall of the Berlin Wall. But, as experts point out, the comparison seems far-fetched: at that time, there was neither an active war nor any ongoing foreign bombardment.

Today, the United States is aiming for a gradual economic collapse, in the hope that financial pressure will yield results that war has failed to achieve. It is a risky gamble, coming at a time when the administration appears to have exhausted many of its options.