The Rhine – our Hormuz?

It may be an exaggeration to say that the shallows of the River Rhine could become a mini ‘European Hormuz’, but the current drop in water levels is certainly jeopardising navigation on Europe’s most important commercial waterway. The warning comes from the German Association for Inland Navigation (Bdb), which has also raised the spectre of the river splitting in two where the so-called ‘hunger stones’ are emerging – ancient boulders engraved during the great droughts of the past which, rather than serving as a warning to future generations about the risks caused by water scarcity, have become a symbol of climate ignorance (understood precisely as a widespread tendency to ignore the phenomenon).

The whole of Europe is facing severe heatwaves – in France, the government has restricted water use across 70 per cent of the country, and in Italy the cost of the drought has already been estimated at over 70 billion – but the situation on the Rhine is of particular concern due to the risk of disruptions to freight transport. For the time being, ships have managed to continue navigating through the industrial heart of the European economy, albeit with reduced cargoes and increased costs, following a pattern the world has come to recognise in other areas and on other waterways for health and wartime reasons. The German river basin authorities have warned that, with water levels this low, the Rhine is no longer fully navigable, leading to longer routes and as yet incalculable effects on delivery delays and freight prices. The German government is, in fact, already considering authorising aid for the hardest-hit companies. In the spring, a number of ECB studies had raised the alarm about the possibility that the scorching summer might impact the Eurozone economy in terms of lower growth and inflation, but these were regarded as potential rather than concrete estimates. The facts suggest that these forecasts were not overly pessimistic and that by the end of the year we may see an impact on European GDP.