What does the debate on the electoral threshold tell us about Germany?

Berlin. A first-past-the-post system in the UK, a two-round system in France, and a system based on small constituencies in Spain. Every country has its own electoral system, which is usually stable over time. Germany is no exception: from 1949 to the present day, there have been countless reforms and amendments to the electoral law, alongside several rulings by the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe. Yet the overall framework has remained unchanged over time: half of the MPs are elected in single-member constituencies based on the British model, and the other half from closed lists within a proportional representation system with a 5 per cent threshold. Essentially, at every election, Germans can cast two votes, which may be split: one to choose who will sit in the Bundestag for that constituency and the other for their ‘favourite’ party. The system has worked well, providing the country with clear majorities and stable governments from 1949 to 2021, when the Merkel era came to an end. Over time, the electoral law has undergone various adjustments: in 1990 to take account of reunification; and more recently to prevent the number of MPs from continuing to rise with every election – the law has set this figure at 630. Today, however, there are those pushing for the threshold in the proportional representation system to be lowered from 5 per cent to 3 per cent. This change would not alter the 50-50 split between MPs elected in single-member constituencies and those elected via proportional representation, but it would shift the balance within the latter group.

Among the proponents of the mini-reform is Hans-Jürgen Papier, former president of the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe. Speaking to the German media, the legal expert pointed out that in the last federal elections, only six of the 29 parties standing managed to exceed the 5 per cent threshold, with the result that 6.8 million voters from smaller parties are currently unrepresented in the Bundestag. In the February 2025 elections, voters for the far-right Bsw party, with 4.98 per cent, and the Liberals (FDP), with 4.3 per cent, narrowly missed out. Further behind were the Free Voters with 1.5 per cent. It is true that the law does allow parties to overcome this hurdle if the party with the fewest votes secures at least three direct seats (which is how Die Linke entered parliament in 2021), but this loophole is not available to everyone. The shift has occurred in recent years: whilst in 2013 the combined share of parties excluded from parliament stood at 6.3 per cent of the votes cast – and just 5.1 per cent in 2017 – it rose to 7.8 per cent in 2021, jumping to 13.8 per cent in 2025. The electoral success of the AfD, which has burst onto the German political scene, has also shifted the balance: today, those inside the system have fewer seats and struggle to govern, whilst the number of unrepresented voters is growing. Hence the “verdict” delivered by the former judge: “The 5 per cent electoral threshold is no longer in step with the times,” Papier told the Tagesspiegel. He added: “Almost one in seven list votes was rendered invalid. Is this really essential to keep Parliament functioning and the government able to act? I don’t think so.” Several Social Democratic politicians have sided with the legal expert, aiming in the long term to lower the same threshold in regional elections, given that they are struggling considerably in the east. The former leader of Die Linke, Bodo Ramelow, is also on board, as he believes the threshold is “highly dangerous for democracy”.

Not everyone, however, agrees with the former constitutional judge. Not CDU MP Günter Krings, who believes that more voters would opt for small parties, thereby dealing a blow to governability, which is already under severe strain due to the massive presence of sovereigntist forces in the Bundestag. Beyond his self-serving interest in rejecting Papier’s proposal, the CDU MP is voicing a widespread fear. The proliferation of small parties is like runaway inflation: it frightens Germans because it reminds them of the Weimar Republic, which ended so disastrously with its 15 parties represented in parliament.

At present, there is no majority in favour of lowering the threshold from 5 to 3 per cent, but Papier, Ramelow and the association Mehr Demokratie (More Democracy) are hoping for a ruling from Karlsruhe in favour of lowering the threshold: in the recent past, the court ruled that the 5 per cent threshold in European elections was unconstitutional, given that those elections do not serve to elect an executive. In short, that threshold is not set in stone.