Putin’s postcards to Europe. A study by anti-propaganda activists

The most effective propaganda, in times of peace and in times of war, thrives not only on assertions but above all on omissions. To sustain effective propaganda, omissions are necessary, crucial, fundamental – not to deny a reality but simply to omit it, to conceal it, to erase it. The trick is simple: if you deny the existence of a problem, you will have an easy time of it in demonising any attempt to resolve that problem. This applies in many fields across the world; today, it applies first and foremost in the face of the Russian threat. If you deny it, hide it, omit it, play it down or erase it, you stand a good chance of making your propaganda more effective. There is no need to defend ourselves: the threat does not exist. There is no need to arm Ukraine: the threat does not exist. There is no need to raise the alarm about Putin: the threat, for Europe, does not exist. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is an independent international think tank based in London, specialising in security, defence, geopolitics and military affairs. It was founded in 1958 and has for years been publishing analyses and research used by governments, armed forces and academics to navigate military issues; it is best known for its annual report “The Military Balance” and, a few days ago, published an important report that helps to shed clear light on one of the most intriguing instances of denial perpetuated in recent months by the propagandists of so-called pacifism. 

The report is entitled “The Russian drone campaign over Europe” and documents a number of facts that we have decided to feature on the front page of our newspaper today. According to the IISS, between August 2024 and February 2026, suspicious drones were sighted at least 144 times across thirteen different countries. Not all the drones sighted can be attributed to Russia, but the totality of Russian incursions into Europe – combined with the hybrid war, cyber-attacks and the widespread infiltration of spies across the continent – provides sufficient evidence to argue that what we are facing, according to the IISS, is “the Kremlin’s most extensive unconventional war waged against Europe”. The report does not take into account the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle regarding the aggression against Europe, which, according to several Italian politicians (from Conte to Vannacci) and various observers (from Marco to Travaglio), is an aggression fabricated by the media, arms lobbyists and the warmongers in Brussels; nor, of course, does it mention what happened on 4 August in Leipzig, at Halle Airport, at a logistics hub also used by NATO, where a drone equipped with professional-grade explosives and a detonator was found near Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft (the German Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating a possible attack on national security; the German Interior Minister has spoken of a hybrid threat and possible foreign state involvement, whilst the newspapers most susceptible to Putin’s propaganda have devoted less attention to the story than they would if a light bulb were to blow at Genoa City Council). Yet despite the fact that the latest findings date back to February, the dynamics described by the IISS are interesting and instructive. Russia, the report states, has chosen to conduct a prolonged drone campaign to probe gaps in the continent’s air defences. And the incursions by Russian drones into Europe are said to have had the following objectives: to map sensitive infrastructure, in particular military bases, nuclear sites, ports, airports and logistics hubs used to support Ukraine; To impose economic and psychological costs on Europe, causing airport closures, disruption, disproportionate expenditure on intercepting relatively inexpensive drones, and a public sense of vulnerability. Finally, to normalise airspace violations, accustoming governments and public opinion to incursions that are ambiguous and difficult to attribute.

Drone incursions in Europe are still under investigation by half a dozen security and intelligence agencies and, as the IISS points out, also by numerous European governments which believe that Russia was behind some of the incidents. Over the past few months, airport hubs including Brussels, Copenhagen, Munich, Oslo and Vilnius have been targeted. Operations at smaller regional airports in Denmark, Germany and the Baltic states have been disrupted. Suspicious flights have been observed over highly sensitive military installations, as happened in February 2026 when a drone suspected of being Russian – likely launched from the Russian spy ship Zhigulevsk – hovered over the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. Germany recorded the highest number of incidents of any European country, with 58 sightings reported between August 2024 and February 2026. It was followed by Belgium with 25, Denmark with 16 and the Netherlands with nine. France recorded eight, whilst the United Kingdom and Norway recorded seven each. Finland and Sweden each recorded four sightings. The chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, said a few days ago that over the past two years there have been “around 700 allied fighter jets that have taken off almost daily in response to Russian aircraft approaching our airspace”. The denial of the Russian threat to Europe – as if it were not enough to look at what has been happening in Ukraine for the past four years to realise that Putin’s attack on Ukraine is also an attack on the very borders of European democracy – is a problem not only because it denies reality, but also because this suppression of the truth forms part of the process of normalising the Russian threat to Europe, which Vladimir Putin has been working on for months. If Europe is under threat and does nothing to respond, or is divided in its response to the threat, there will be a greater likelihood in the future of seeing the Atlantic Alliance divided in the event of an actual attack on Europe.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published an exclusive report – discussed today in Il Foglio by our own Micol Flammini – stating that US intelligence believes Putin could test NATO’s resolve with a limited incursion sometime between this coming autumn and 2029. The reason, explains the Wall Street Journal, is counterintuitive: Putin is under increasing pressure in Ukraine, is facing difficulties at home, cannot find a way to secure an easy victory, Ukrainian drones are now inflicting damage on the Russian army and the Russian oil industry almost daily, and opening a front in Europe could help Russia expose NATO’s vulnerability. It is possible that the scenario outlined by US intelligence is exaggerated (in 2022, the very same people who today claim that Russia is not a threat to Europe argued that Putin would never, ever attack Ukraine – as readers of Il Fatto Quotidiano will certainly recall). But it is impossible not to realise one simple fact: propaganda that, as well as thriving on assertions, feeds on denial, denies reality, erases problems, demonises solutions, turns the victims into aggressors and the aggressors into victims – thereby certainly, albeit unwittingly, helping Europe’s enemies to make Europe a little weaker and Europe’s enemies a little stronger. Faced with a Russian drone flying over Europe, people close their eyes, play it down and deny reality. Faced with a single euro spent on defence, everyone takes to the streets to defend the aggressor and weaken the victim. A quick refresher, to ensure we do not deny reality, may be useful – with the anti-propaganda cover feature you’ll find in today’s edition of our newspaper.