Strategic and economic convergence in the Middle East

Tel Aviv. If Iran’s strategic objective was to prevent the consolidation of a new regional order led by the United States and Israel, the result appears to be the opposite: ties between the Gulf monarchies are strengthening, with these states becoming increasingly ‘Westernised’, whilst the West, paradoxically, is becoming more ‘Middle Eastern’. Dan Marconi, co-founder of Bridge Legacy – a consultancy and jurisdictional planning firm headquartered in Dubai with offices in Geneva, São Paulo and Tel Aviv – explains this to "Il Foglio".

According to Marconi – who divides his time between Dubai and São Paulo – from the UAE’s perspective, the strategy adopted by Tehran has ultimately accelerated a process of economic, technological and strategic integration between Israel and the Arab monarchies which, unlike the West, view it as a model of technological and financial advancement. In response to Washington’s offensive, Tehran has chosen to target the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, alienating its neighbours and driving them into the opposing camp: “Whilst the West imports immigrants to address labour shortages, the Middle East imports talent to accelerate its economic and technological progress, with Israel confirming its status as the leading hub of innovation, whilst the Gulf monarchies act as its financial driving force. Together, they are building an ecosystem founded on scientific research, infrastructure and investment. This is why the Middle East cannot remain the main theatre of international crises for much longer. What is today the most contested region – where the three superpowers, the United States, China and Russia, face off, vying for other potential alliances – is destined to become a superpower in its own right. The markets are already anticipating this transformation: despite nearly three years of conflict, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has more than doubled in value compared with before 7 October, and the shekel is among the strongest currencies globally. This reflects a vision in line with that of the Gulf leaderships, who are thinking in terms of thirty-year horizons and planning economic diversification aimed at coping with the end of the oil era, whilst isolating the Strait of Hormuz. Whilst the Abraham Accords have not yet been extended to all Gulf countries, economic, technological and intelligence cooperation now appears, in practice, to be far more advanced than official diplomacy.”

In this context, the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) project takes on great significance; it is designed to link India, the Arabian Peninsula, Israel and Europe via rail, port, energy and digital networks: “More than just commercial infrastructure, this is a geopolitical project based on economic interdependence, serving as a tool for regional stabilisation. This strategic transformation will also be driven by artificial intelligence: the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are investing billions of dollars in the construction of data centres and computing infrastructure. A significant proportion of the leading Western artificial intelligence platforms receive funding from Gulf sovereign wealth funds, which do not merely acquire financial stakes but aim to localise within their own territories the industrial capacity necessary for the development of future technologies”.

The result, therefore, is the emergence of a new strategic axis between the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, united by their investment in innovation, human capital and technological development: “Against this backdrop of new alliances, two other crucial players are coming to the fore. India, now the world’s most populous country, which has been focusing on technological research for decades, is set to become the eastern hub of this new economic architecture. And Latin America, led above all – both in terms of population and financial investment – by Brazil. In this region, moreover, initiatives such as the Isaac Agreements, recently promoted between Israel and Argentina, are increasingly coming to the fore; unlike the Abraham Accords, which focus on building a bridge between Judaism and Islam, these aim to strengthen ties with the Christian world, in order to expand cooperation between South America and the Middle East. “If this trajectory were to take hold,” concludes Marconi, “shared prosperity would replace the logic of proxy wars, ensuring lasting regional peace.”