Nicaragua is moving towards a one-party system

Rome. Following Daniel Ortega’s sensational announcement that no further elections will be held in Nicaragua – in order to prevent an opposition he has described as ‘traitorous’ from returning to power – sources within the National Assembly in Managua confirm that the body is indeed preparing to implement the necessary reforms. The National Assembly itself, in its current form, would be abolished and replaced by people’s assemblies modelled on the Cuban system.

Reactions were immediate, starting with neighbouring countries. The Panamanian government has recalled its ambassador for consultations, whilst the Costa Rican government has reaffirmed its support for democracy. Not only that: despite being a right-wing government, even the Frente Amplio, Costa Rica’s main far-left opposition force, has taken a very hard line against Ortega, who has responded with the insults that have come to characterise his style. “These recent developments further highlight the severe restrictions on fundamental freedoms, the dismantling of civic space and the constant erosion of the rule of law,” denounced the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, calling on the regime in Managua to “reopen civic space and restore the rule of law”.

“Ortega has dropped yet another mask,” commented Juan Sebastián Chamorro, an opposition figure in exile, arguing that the Nicaraguan president is now openly aiming for a one-party dictatorship modelled on China, Cuba or North Korea. “He cannot do this,” warned Albert Ramdin, Secretary-General of the Organisation of American States. “Free, fair and periodic elections are not an option.” Nicaragua, he added, “has an obligation to restore democracy, guaranteeing political pluralism, political rights and the holding of free, periodic and fair elections.” The Economist captured the significance of this turning point by referring to the moment “when a president stops pretending that votes matter”. Elected democratically in 2006, Ortega has been the driving force behind a gradual and increasingly marked slide towards authoritarianism, without, however, relinquishing – until now – the pretence of a pluralist democracy. After all, since 1989, the single-party model has been widely discredited, surviving only in a handful of communist regimes.

This does not mean that authoritarianism has disappeared. On the contrary, in recent years the quality of democracy has deteriorated in much of the world. Yet, from Putin to the Iranian ayatollahs, from the Burmese generals to Maduro and Lukashenko, no one – with the exception of the Taliban – had until now completely abandoned the ritual of elections featuring opposing candidates. The Economist invokes François de La Rochefoucauld’s famous maxim, ‘hypocrisy is the tribute vice pays to virtue’, to observe that ‘autocrats often organise sham elections. They may be rigged, as in Russia or Iran, but they allow rulers to claim they govern with popular consent, conferring on them a semblance of legitimacy both at home and on the international stage’. Latin America, too, has been swept up in this democratic backsliding, which has affected governments of various political persuasions, including some on the right. The most profound deviations, however, have been seen in the left-wing governments of Nicaragua and Venezuela, whilst Cuba continues to represent one of the last examples of an openly one-party state. If Ortega now breaks this taboo as well, the Economist further observes, “if Nicaragua formally becomes a one-party state without suffering diplomatic consequences – as seems likely – other countries could follow suit”.

Rather than a show of strength, however, the decision by the 80-year-old Ortega could represent an admission of weakness: an acknowledgement that he is no longer capable of winning even rigged elections. This interpretation is shared by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who wrote on X: “Abolishing the elections demonstrates Daniel Ortega’s cowardice and his fear of the will of the Nicaraguan people”. Rubio promises that Donald Trump and the international community “will not stand idly by whilst the dictatorship intensifies its repression and creates instability that threatens national security”.