“Vannacci has lost his novelty factor”. Pollsters explain the freefall of Futuro Nazionale

The novelty has worn off, coupled with a single-issue focus, the government’s indifference and the electoral law. There are several factors explaining why Roberto Vannacci has been plummeting in all the polls conducted over the past month. The latest was the Supermedia poll carried out by YouTrend for Agi, according to which, over the last fourteen days, Futuro Nazionale has lost 1.1 per cent of the vote, confirming its status as the party experiencing the sharpest decline. “The initial momentum that had propelled him so high is running out – momentum that was largely fuelled by public opinion and media coverage,” summarises Carlo Buttaroni of Tecno. Indeed, the former general has not been at the centre of the news for several weeks now, so much so that Livio Gigliuto of the Piepoli Institute uses an eloquent analogy: “I don’t think that last week – the week of the clashes in Milan – Vannacci was the main figure in the debate. So much so that he failed to make the headlines himself, but instead ceded the limelight to the government, and the government seized that opportunity. Had this happened in June, the story would have been completely different.”

To explain the downfall of a party that, in just a few months, had become the fourth-largest political force in the polls, one must consider a combination of factors. The first of these is that it is no longer ‘a political outsider’, says Gigliuto; in other words, it is no longer an unidentified entity. There was a precise moment when the MEP ceased to be one: when he stood in the by-election for the Chamber of Deputies in Calabria, announcing that he would win just as the AfD had in Saxony-Anhalt, but above all, he had clearly stated that he would be decisive in securing victory for the centre-right. Yet those by-elections – and those who emphasised them – proved his undoing, because “the result achieved lowered expectations of him, as he made it clear he wanted to join the governing coalition”, explains Gigliuto.

And these statements have effectively normalised the party, causing it to lose its initial appeal “with the consequent alienation of those voters who had abstained in previous elections – amounting to around forty per cent of its electorate,” adds Antonio Noto of the polling institute of the same name, “and who had joined the FN because of the leader’s charisma, but who are now returning to abstention”. In fact, explains Buttaroni, “that is a ‘soft’ electorate that is difficult to actually get to the polls, and once that media momentum runs out, their votes disappear from the polls and you can’t find them anymore”.

But there is another factor to bear in mind, Noto points out: “Vannacci is single-issue; he talks only of remigration and security. For him, there are neither taxes nor the cost of living. However, we are entering an election year and, as the general election draws nearer, the electorate is seeking answers on other issues too, and the former general is not providing answers in this regard; there is no overarching plan.” But, speaking of elections, it is worth bearing in mind that with the Stabilicum – if it is confirmed – “anyone outside the two main coalitions will find it very difficult to make their case”, notes Gigliuto. There is also a fourth issue: the relationship between Futuro Nazionale and the centre-right. Since September, “the government has taken action on certain issues, such as security and immigration – whether intentionally or not – by tapping into that social demand for which Vannacci had become a spokesperson”, explains Buttaroni. But apart from the legislation passed, what has had the greatest impact, according to Noto, has been the government’s attitude, because “whilst at first it responded tit-for-tat to the former general, it now essentially ignores him and, by no longer viewing him as a political counterpart, has in effect diminished his legitimacy, causing him to lose visibility at national level”.