Politics
the data •
The Vannacci phenomenon is losing steam: social media figures are falling. Ferraino: “He’s now struggling with security”
The general has seen his poll ratings drop for the first time, and his Instagram figures are no longer what they used to be. This setback also affects his alter ego “Robertus Vannaccius”, a page from which AI-generated content is posted, in which the FnV leader is depicted, for example, as a Roman emperor
Not the best start to the week for Roberto Vannacci. In the polls published on Monday by SWG, Futuro Nazionale has dropped to 7.8 per cent: a fall of 0.2 points compared with the previous week, when the party had nevertheless remained steady at 8 per cent. The most obvious setback, however, can be found where the general and his cadets have reigned supreme all summer: on social media.
According to data from the social media monitoring site ‘The Social Blade’, Roberto Vannacci’s Instagram page is no longer growing as it once did. Whilst he gained 175,100 new followers in June, this figure fell to 98,000 in July, 51,000 in August and 29,000 in September, despite a steady increase in the volume of content published. In July, the deepfake video in which Vannacci, dressed as a Roman emperor with Meloni and La Russa beside him in the stands of the Colosseum, gave the thumbs-down whilst letting a lion maul Schlein and Conte, attracted a great deal of criticism but also a lot of attention: 52,000 likes, 1.2 million views and over 5,500 comments. The content had been posted by the ‘Robertus Vannaccius’ page, in collaboration with the general’s official account. Today, the videos featuring his imperial alter ego appear to have worn thin with his followers: the last five, posted between yesterday and today, have garnered an average of 14,600 views. The last video to exceed one million views was on 4 August. The average views per video, as can be seen by looking at his Instagram page, have plummeted by 93.4 per cent in three months, falling from 535,000 in July to 171,200 in August, to 47,600 in September and down to 35,500 in October – a drop of around 15 times compared to the start of the period.
According to Luca Ferraino, a digital marketing expert and head of the communications agency SocialCom, it is too early to speak of a genuine decline in the Vannacci phenomenon. “However,” he explains to Il Foglio, “he is facing problems with his key theme: security. There’s a great deal of talk about it on social media: just think of the news stories from the last few days in Rome, from the attempted squatting in Tor Sapienza to the non-EU national killed in Villa Gordiani.” According to Ferraino, “in recent times, many members of the governing majority, both at local and national level, have begun to capitalise on this issue. Furthermore, there have been concrete actions taken by the government, such as the clearance of Tor Sapienza, which was carried out swiftly”. In fact, “when the government provides answers on issues that concern Italians, things get tougher for Vannacci”, observes the expert. In his view, the general is paying the price for having focused much of his social media communication specifically on security issues, only to fade into the background when that very topic is raised by other voices perceived as even more authoritative. “Yet, he began to capitalise on it because, as a general, he is seen by the public as someone capable of resolving security problems. He covered that ground and had a free run for much of the year, but in reality it is a topic that only resonates in central and northern Italy. South of Rome, it carries less weight.” In the south, the general is making less headway: the by-elections in Calabria did him no favours at all, and the party committees have begun to lose around a thousand members. From Campania to Puglia, infighting among the Futurists has made the local news, while in Sardinia (specifically in Sassari) 500 members have handed back their membership cards to the General to join Italia Domani, Marco Rizzo’s new sovereignist movement. Nor should we underestimate what is happening in Lazio, where Gianni Alemanno’s influence appears to have unsettled the more ‘moderate’ Vannacci supporters.
According to Luca Ferraino, a digital marketing expert and head of the communications agency SocialCom, it is too early to speak of a genuine decline in the Vannacci phenomenon. “However,” he explains to Il Foglio, “he is facing problems with his key theme: security. There’s a great deal of talk about it on social media: just think of the news stories from the last few days in Rome, from the attempted squatting in Tor Sapienza to the non-EU national killed in Villa Gordiani.” According to Ferraino, “in recent times, many members of the governing majority, both at local and national level, have begun to capitalise on this issue. Furthermore, there have been concrete actions taken by the government, such as the clearance of Tor Sapienza, which was carried out swiftly”. In fact, “when the government provides answers on issues that concern Italians, things get tougher for Vannacci”, observes the expert. In his view, the general is paying the price for having focused much of his social media communication specifically on security issues, only to fade into the background when that very topic is raised by other voices perceived as even more authoritative. “Yet, he began to capitalise on it because, as a general, he is seen by the public as someone capable of resolving security problems. He covered that ground and had a free run for much of the year, but in reality it is a topic that only resonates in central and northern Italy. South of Rome, it carries less weight.” In the south, the general is making less headway: the by-elections in Calabria did him no favours at all, and the party committees have begun to lose around a thousand members. From Campania to Puglia, infighting among the Futurists has made the local news, while in Sardinia (specifically in Sassari) 500 members have handed back their membership cards to the General to join Italia Domani, Marco Rizzo’s new sovereignist movement. Nor should we underestimate what is happening in Lazio, where Gianni Alemanno’s influence appears to have unsettled the more ‘moderate’ Vannacci supporters.
“It’s the problem of having brought together, and very quickly, very different factions,” says Ferraino, who believes that the spectre of the ‘tactical vote’ is also weighing heavily on the general’s shoulders, both on and off social media. “Voters are realising that by voting for the far right, there is a risk of ending up with the left in government. It’s an issue that’s starting to be raised online, and these arguments will begin to carry some weight as the elections draw nearer.” Ferraino is convinced that the closer we get to polling day, the more the message will circulate on social media that a vote for Vannacci amounts to indirect support for the left – an argument already frequently used in recent months by centre-right politicians. “He’ll have to come up with a social media strategy for this,” concludes the expert. “But it won’t be easy for him.”