Malan (FdI): “Perhaps the vote will be in May alongside the local elections”, but he then backtracks: “The vote will be at the end of the parliamentary term”. Today’s vote of confidence on the electoral law

“There may be a need to go to the polls in May, alongside the local elections.” These words come not from a hopeful opposition MP, but from Lucio Malan, the leader of the Fratelli d’Italia group in the Senate. Speaking on ‘Un giorno da pecora’ on Rai Radio 1, the ruling party representative hinted at the possibility of early elections. In a debate that has, over recent months, become increasingly rife with rumours, behind-the-scenes manoeuvring and denials, a representative of Giorgia Meloni’s party now believes it will prove necessary to bring the term of office to an early end by dissolving Parliament ahead of schedule. He made these comments the day after Prime Minister Meloni herself reiterated that she would “see the term through to the end”, and the day before voting was due to begin in the Chamber of Deputies on the new electoral law. And indeed, shortly afterwards came his “self-contradiction”. Speaking to Tg3, he said: "As far as we are concerned, the parliamentary term will run its course, that is, until autumn 2027, subject to the prerogatives of the Head of State." It is possible that someone received a phone call from Palazzo Chigi.

Of course, the scenario initially envisaged by Malan is entirely based on time constraints: “The term is five years; we voted in September, so we could vote again in September,” he said. “The problem,” he explains, “with a September vote is that you have little time for the election campaign, and then there’s the Budget Bill to deal with, which is a very sensitive matter.” Hence: an early election. The statements by the FdI senator appeared to endorse the idea that the Prime Minister wishes to go to the polls sooner. And even though just yesterday the Prime Minister denied this scenario – now reiterated by the senator himself – there is no shortage of signs pointing to an early end to the parliamentary term: from the reduction in vehicle tax to the acceleration of the electoral reform bill, from the cap on foreign students in schools to greater flexibility in this Budget Bill, with a reduction in defence spending compared to what was originally planned.

Tomorrow, the Chamber of Deputies will vote on the first articles of the electoral law on which the government called a vote of confidence this morning. The aim appears to be to prevent a repeat – by wielding the spectre of a secret ballot – of the scene witnessed on 14 July, when the majority’s amendment on preferential voting was scuppered by rebels in the Chamber and the centre-right lost by a single vote. The likelihood of a similar outcome occurring between Wednesday and Thursday is now very low, partly because of the confidence motion that has been tabled, but also because Meloni has stated in recent weeks that if the electoral law does not pass, the government will resign. All eyes will be on Thursday 8 October.