Il CamaleConte. The leader of the M5S changes his stance on Kyiv and Russian gas depending on his audience

Yes, no, we’ll see. In a nutshell, this sums up Giuseppe Conte’s, leader of the M5S, view on the Ukraine issue and everything surrounding it, including military aid and gas, amongst other things. Or at least that is what can be pieced together by analysing the various statements he has made on the subject in recent months alone, during which the former prime minister has adjusted his position (softening it or making it more robust) depending on the audience he was addressing. Take, for example, his speech at the +Europa convention in March. Faced with such a conspicuously pro-Ukraine audience, Conte said that “today, in the face of the tempting price of Russian gas, we must not buy it until there is a peace treaty”. This is because “Russian aggression must absolutely be sanctioned” with “economic and financial sanctions”. And the audience broke into applause.

Barely ten days on, and everything already seems rather faded. In April, in the Chamber of Deputies, responding to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s statement, the leader of the M5S said: “A breakthrough in the negotiations in Ukraine is needed – we need it like bread – because the very next moment we’ll have to buy Russian gas, which is much cheaper than American gas”.  The point was reiterated in April on the sidelines of an M5S event in Rome: “Let’s reach a solution straight away because we have to buy Russian gas, and it’s more cost-effective for our businesses and our citizens”. As we pointed out here, whilst in discourse aimed at a pro-European audience the refusal to buy Russian gas appears as a sanction to be applied in order to achieve a just peace for Ukraine, in the latter case the purchase of Russian gas becomes the objective to be achieved, hindered by the absence of a peace agreement. On the one hand, the priority is Kyiv’s security; on the other, it is to resume buying cheap natural gas from Putin. This is certainly not a minor difference, especially in view of a future coalition with centre-left forces that hold very different positions on the issue. 

The same ambiguity applies when discussing military aid. The audience gathered in Naples on 8 July – who were generally well-disposed towards Conte (with the exception of a few protesters) – allowed the leader of the M5S to step up the pace. From the stage in Piazza del Gesù, whilst criticising Italy’s plan to increase military spending and “buy American weapons to please Trump”, he came out with this: “Do you realise they’re fabricating a Russian threat to convince us that we need to arm ourselves to the teeth? They don’t say these things; I’m telling you.” These were bombastic remarks with a faint whiff of conspiracy theory, a far cry from the caution he displayed in early September before the audience of In Onda on La7. He was asked whether a ‘no’ to sending weapons to Ukraine would be a non-negotiable condition for the M5S in a government programme, but Conte did not offer a categorical ‘niet’: “We’ll see about that; I’ll answer this question in line with our shared programme and the primaries,” replied the former prime minister. Surprisingly, he chose to play for time, postponing his answer until a later date. 

Nothing could be further from what happened yesterday at the Festa del Fatto Quotidiano: perhaps the audience closest to him of all. On Ukraine, “it is clear that we will have to set out a few firm points in advance, because it cannot be the case that Schlein or another candidate wins tomorrow morning and then we send weapons galore to Kyiv, fuelling a military escalation that is leading us towards a third world war day by day,” said the former prime minister, thus seeking to lock down the issue of military support for Ukraine in a firm and decisive manner. Except that within the PD, the centre-left’s main ally, both the reformists and the party secretary, Elly Schlein, have put forward a completely opposite narrative: “We have supported and will continue to support the people of Ukraine, who have been unjustly invaded by Putin’s military offensive, which continues to this day,” the PD secretary stated yesterday at the closing rally of the National Unity Festival in Reggio Emilia. Different public events and diverse audiences, with the leader of the M5S trying to please them all, even at the cost of contradicting or overturning what he had said just a few days earlier. Some commentators have described his approach as resembling a leader in a gaseous state, or even a mythological creature called “CamaleConte”. Without a doubt, the only thing that is certain about Conte’s stance on a crucial issue such as Kyiv is his sheer ambiguity.