The AfD’s victory divides the centre-right: Salvini versus Tajani. And FdI pours cold water on the situation

Mixed reactions and caution. The victory of Alternative für Deutschland in Saxony-Anhalt – securing 44 per cent of the vote and coming within a hair’s breadth of leading the regional government – has elicited a far from unanimous response in Italy. The governing majority has once again found itself speaking with different voices: Matteo Salvini was immediately enthusiastic about the result (despite the fact that the Lega, together with the Rassemblement National, ousted the AfD from the Patriots group in 2024), whilst Antonio Tajani described it as ‘very bad news’. This latest difference of opinion only serves to accentuate the internal rift within the government on a host of issues, from windfall profits to electoral law, right through to foreign policy. Caught in the middle, as always, is Fratelli d’Italia, which has so far adopted a more cautious stance, seeking to avoid turning the German election into a new battleground for internal conflict. Giorgia Meloni has not yet commented. Meanwhile, Vannacci, gloating, attacks the “inconsistency” of the Carroccio secretary. After all, following its expulsion by the Patriots, the German far-right party now has the general himself as its main Italian ally in Europe.

A minor clash between the government’s two deputy prime ministers flared up this morning. Yesterday, Salvini wasted no time in claiming the result as part of a political battle he regards as shared by the League and the European right: “It is a resounding success, highlighting the strong demand for change, security and jobs,” he wrote as soon as the first exit polls were released. Around lunchtime, appearing as a guest on L’Aria che tira, he rejected the idea that the AfD’s success should be seen as a problem in itself, responding to Tajani (and delivering a bold lesson in democracy): “If next year the French elect Marine Le Pen as President of the Republic, will that be a problem? No, it’s called democracy.”

Tajani, on the other hand, has chosen to draw a line in the sand. And for the leader of Forza Italia, the result in Saxony-Anhalt is “very bad news”: the AfD, he said, represents a force that is “antithetical to the liberal and Western values” with which the Azzurri identify. “A worrying sign, certainly. But also a local, regional election.” Raffaele Nevi, the party’s spokesperson, spoke along the same lines, describing the AfD’s surge as a “wake-up call” that should neither be overemphasised nor underestimated. In his view, the response to the rise of populists cannot simply be to shut them “away in a pen”: policies must be changed and, perhaps, even the majorities that have governed Europe. The model he points to is that of the “Tajani majority, the one that in 2017 brought the Azzurri leader to the presidency of the European Parliament”.

While Salvini has turned the German election into an opportunity to champion his own vision of Europe and Tajani has distanced himself from the AfD, Fratelli d’Italia has chosen a middle ground: acknowledging the result without portraying it as either a victory for the Italian right or a threat to European democracy. The party’s leader in the Chamber of Deputies, Galeazzo Bignami, explains this stance. Speaking to Skytg24, he pointed out that “when voters have their say, the result must always be accepted, whatever the outcome”, whilst avoiding endorsing Salvini’s interpretation. As for the divergence between the two deputy prime ministers, he preferred to dismiss it as a normal difference between European political families: “Tajani belongs to a different political family at European level to that of Salvini”. A distinction which, according to Bignami, should not necessarily have any consequences for Italian politics.

This caution is also evident in the words of the Minister of the Interior, Matteo Piantedosi. “This is a result that applies to Germany; it cannot be replicated in Italy,” he observed, urging people not to conflate different political realities and electoral systems. Meanwhile, MEP Nicola Procaccini was the most forthright of all: “I do not believe that the AfD is a neo-Nazi party, as I unfortunately often hear claimed. Whilst I do not agree with certain points in their manifesto, I do not understand how such a notion can be put forward, especially given that the leader, Alice Weidel, has repeatedly condemned Nazism.” He added: “There are issues on which the AfD enjoys broad support. However, there is a fundamental problem affecting the entire German political system: the practice of governing through a coalition between the centre-right and the centre-left. This approach inevitably opens the door to a strong demand for clarity and consistency.”

Edmondo Cirielli also urges readers not to interpret the German election result as a precedent that can automatically be applied to Italy. In short, the line is: no favouritism towards the general and no identification between him and the German political party. “We don’t need the AfD to know that sovereignty and the right are on the rise in Europe,” observed the Deputy Foreign Minister, adding that the voters’ choice must be respected and that Rome has no intention of interfering in the internal affairs of an allied country. And what about the rift between Salvini and Tajani? “A normal political assessment between two party leaders.” 

It is Roberto Vannacci himself who is pushing for this interpretation of the election result as a shift even further to the right. The leader of Futuro Nazionale hailed the AfD’s breakthrough as a sign of continental change: “Europe is changing,” he wrote, accompanying the message with a “Nessun dorma” directed at the rest of the continent. As early as the evening of the exit polls, he had quipped about Chancellor Friedrich Merz, writing that “he’s got an ulcer” and that the EU is changing. “We at Futuro Nazionale,” he wrote on social media, “together with the AfD in the ‘Europe of Sovereign Nations’ group, are fighting to give Europe back to its nations, sovereignty to its peoples and a future to our children. Europe is changing. The faded right is retreating. The peoples are raising their heads again.”

During the course of the morning, several politicians, commenting on the German elections, ruled out the possibility of Vannacci joining the coalition ahead of the forthcoming elections. Or at least for the time being. The fact remains that relations between the parties and the general continue to be strained. Vannacci himself has launched a scathing attack on Matteo Salvini: “I am increasingly convinced that I did the right thing in leaving the League,” he wrote in a video posted on social media. In it, he explains: “When they’re no longer useful, they’re kicked out; when they win, they’re congratulated. Yesterday, Matteo Salvini congratulated his friend Alice Weidel and celebrated the AfD’s victory in Saxony. But just two years ago, the League – which held the majority and the presidency of Identity and Democracy – in agreement with the Rassemblement National, expelled the AfD from Identity and Democracy. This is the League’s consistency, and it reinforces my decision to have left that political alliance.”