Schlein and Conte are negotiating ahead of the big primary election showdown

They keep repeating: “The programme comes first”. But in the meantime, under the beach umbrella on Ferragosto, the Campo Largo will be counting the candidates. Their numbers are growing every day, and with them the uncertainties, the fears and the negotiations. It is the grand (masked) ball of the primaries. Schlein and Conte are vying for the leadership of the coalition. Bonelli and Fratoianni, who are working to avoid the campaign stalls, have a ‘highly competitive candidate’ in mind just in case. Renzi won’t stand idly by; he’s tempted, and in any case he’ll have his own candidate. Alessandro Onorato feels the same way. Ernesto Maria Ruffini has also officially entered the fray in the last few days: in October, the former director of the Revenue Agency will launch his political project, as a follow-up to the ‘Più uno’ committees, and keeps repeating that a new ‘Ulivo’ is needed. And he tells Il Foglio: “The primaries? We’re open to it, but we want to understand what the rules of the game are.” The PD and the M5S will have to set them, above all. It will take one round of talks, then another, but in the meantime negotiations are underway. The Democrats would like a run-off; the M5S aren’t keen. With a single round, some polls suggest, Conte could pull it off. Then there is the issue of online voting, and this could be the key to mediation. But there are still plenty of sticking points. Fortunately, there is the electoral law: the idea of a major anti-Melonellum mobilisation is gaining ground on the left. Riccardo Magi is pushing for it: “On 15 September, all the leaders in the streets”. (Montenegro continues on page four)

As we await the battle in September and the emergence of unexpected unifying figures, a recent Piepoli Institute poll on the primaries goes some way towards explaining (at least in part) Elly Schlein’s fears. It also takes into account Matteo Renzi and the leaders of AVS. Giuseppe Conte is in first place with 43 per cent, whilst the Democratic Party secretary stands at 36 per cent. Livio Gigliuto, president of the Piepoli Institute, says: “The leader of the M5S enjoys a competitive advantage. In addition to the votes of his own supporters, he could benefit from those of PD voters: according to our findings, this would amount to around 25 per cent.” How can this be explained? “These voters probably see the primaries as a means of choosing the most effective candidate to defeat the right, regardless of party affiliations.” Conversely, those who sympathise with the Movement are far less likely to support a candidate who does not come from their own political circle. “And not because of Schlein,” observes Gigliuto. “It would be the same even if the secretary were someone else.” The M5S electorate, however much it has changed over time, still harbours mistrust towards the PD. If, on the other hand, for example, the Democrats were to back a civic figure in the primaries – or at least someone not directly linked to the party, such as Silvia Salis – they could broaden their appeal.” Whilst awaiting the manifesto, the mayor of Genoa is another major variable in this phase: some would like to see her stand as a candidate for Prime Minister, Renzi points to her as a reformist leader, whilst Goffredo Bettini advises her to head a new party. Certainly, were she to enter the fray at national level, she could throw the calculations of the broad coalition into disarray. This, and other matters, are being discussed by the PD and M5S ‘sherpas’ as they seek to mediate on the rules for the primaries. Firstly, a framework of values must be established to prevent the defeated candidates from defecting. The Nazareno, unlike the M5S, would prefer a two-round system, modelled on the polling stations that saw Bersani defeat Renzi in 2012 (in the first round, none of the five candidates secured more than 50 per cent). In a run-off, Schlein could already count, for example, on the vote from Casa Riformista. The large number of candidates – with Ruffini in the running, there would already be six – favours a solution of this kind. But of course, this would require the PD to be open to the Movement’s demands: not just polling stations, but also online voting, to which M5S activists have historically been attached. In short, this is where the agreement lies. After all, Conte has reiterated this several times: “They must be genuine primaries”, that is, as open as possible and not steered by party structures. From this point of view, the PD is the best-equipped party. Discussions are also continuing over the timing, with the M5S wanting to speed things up and hold the vote by November (December at the latest), whilst Schlein is aiming for the new year (despite the Montepulciano faction). It will then be necessary to define who is actually eligible to vote: one option could be pre-registration on the electoral rolls. Not to mention the contribution: will it be paid as in previous primaries organised by the Democrats, or not? Finally, as regards the candidates, the suggestion came from Franceschini, who explained to Rep that anyone putting themselves forward must represent “a political faction, a group of MPs”.

The mid-August break has slowed things down, but a balance will have to be found. And as soon as possible, not just on the programme, to restore a sense of unity and prevent sections of the electorate from falling by the wayside, regardless of the leaders’ directives. This is perhaps why some eager individuals have already begun to reignite the battle over the electoral law, calling for a mass rally after the summer when the bill is debated in the Senate. Claudio Mancini of the Democratic Party has done so in these pages, but the reformist Alessandro Alfieri is also in agreement. After all, the battle against the ‘Melonellum’ is the one that most closely resembles the ‘No’ campaign in the referendum, the defence of the Constitution. It acts as both the glue and the fuel for the left. A way to broaden and mobilise civil society, the committees of legal experts and journalists – what we have termed in these pages the ‘committees’ strategy’. And then we must not forget that it was precisely against Meloni’s electoral reform that the broad coalition – in a truly extra-large formation – managed to come together in the streets, following the failure of the PD-M5S-AVS alliance in Naples and the cancelled rally in Padua. On that occasion, it was Magi who launched the initiative. “We were the first to denounce that the right is carrying out a veritable electoral coup, changing the rules of the game a year before the elections, solely to remain in power,” the leader of Più Europa tells Il Foglio. “As has already happened in the Chamber of Deputies, we must replicate a united protest.” The date has already been set. “15 September, when the Melonellum bill comes before the Senate. The mobilisation,” he concludes, “against this anti-democratic outrage must continue, and we must all do it together.”