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Who stands to gain and who stands to lose under the new electoral law

Following approval at first reading in the Chamber of Deputies, the two-party system is consolidated, whilst the space for third parties and extremist groups outside the coalitions is shrinking

by
Claudio Cerasa
19 JUL 26
Translated by AI
Image of Who stands to gain and who stands to lose under the new electoral law

Photo: LaPresse

The new electoral law, approved at first reading by the Chamber of Deputies, redraws the map of winners and losers. Giorgia Meloni comes out on top, because the bonus awarded to the coalition that secures at least 42 per cent reduces the risk of a deadlock and makes a stable majority more likely. Elly Schlein also stands to gain: the centre-left will have to nominate a candidate for Prime Minister, and the primaries could strengthen her leadership. The two-party system is consolidating, whilst the space for third parties and extremist groups outside the coalitions is shrinking. Moderates within the political blocs and Matteo Renzi also stand to benefit, thanks to the provision allowing votes for the best-performing list below 3 per cent to be counted. Vannacci’s position is more uncertain: remaining outside the centre-right would strengthen his anti-establishment profile, but the coalition bonus could prompt Meloni to seek an agreement. The reform does not decide the outcome of the elections, but it promotes stability and alternation in government, reducing the likelihood of deadlock and broad coalitions.
    
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Claudio Cerasa

Nasce a Palermo nel 1982, vive a Roma da parecchio tempo, lavora al Foglio dal 2005 e da gennaio 2015 è direttore. Ha scritto qualche libro (“Le catene della destra” e “Le catene della sinistra”, con Rizzoli, “Io non posso tacere”, con Einaudi, “Tra l’asino e il cane. Conversazione sull’Italia”, con Rizzoli, “La Presa di Roma”, con Rizzoli, e "Ho visto l'uomo nero", con Castelvecchi), è su Twitter.

E’ interista, ma soprattutto palermitano. Va pazzo per i Green Day, gli Strokes, i Killers, i tortini al cioccolato e le ostriche ghiacciate. Due figli.