Military spending, self-defence, wiretapping: all the sticking points between Meloni and her allies

In government, we are at the stage where Andrea Laszlo de Simone says: “You’d do well / To seize the time that remains / Before it stops burning / Inside your heart / Even the smallest ideal / That is trembling with terror”. Meloni knows that the passing of the electoral law is only a temporary truce. For there will be many occasions on which the centre-right will once again become divided. Consider the uproar over self-defence, triggered by Mario Roggero’s conviction, with Nordio being reprimanded by Mattarella. Vannacci and Salvini are squabbling over the jeweller. And the Prime Minister is forced to defend the latest security bill, which “introduces a rule of pure common sense: anyone who suffers harm whilst committing a crime cannot claim any compensation, nor can their family members”. On the issue of “dragnet” wiretaps and new aid to Ukraine (stalled since November), the rifts are even more evident.

This week in the Senate, discussions resumed on the conversion of the “Giustizia e patto Ue su migrazione e asilo” decree-law in the Constitutional Affairs and Justice Committees. The bone of contention: an amendment tabled by Fratelli d’Italia senators Gianni Berrino and Sandro Sisler which, at the instigation of the National Anti-Mafia Prosecutor Giovanni Melillo, aims to reintroduce an extension to the use of wiretaps. According to some, this is a way of returning to the so-called ‘dragnet’ approach, which Forza Italia naturally regards as nothing more than a smokescreen. For this reason, in a series of parliamentary group meetings – including one held yesterday – the Forza Italia position has remained one of ‘we are firmly opposed’, as expressed, amongst others, by Senator Pierantonio Zanettin. Giorgio Mulè, Deputy Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies and one of those most familiar with the Berlusconi family, went even further: “We will not accept impositions.” FI has already announced that, barring a compromise, it will not vote for the amendment. So much so that, in order to get the measure passed when it reaches the Chamber, there are already plans to call for a vote of confidence. This could be just a foretaste of what might unfold in the Senate regarding the electoral law, all the more so if (as seems likely) FdI (together with Noi Moderati) pushes ahead and resubmits the amendment on preferential votes. This is a risky move, given that whilst it is true there is no secret ballot in the Senate, its procedures are not subject to the same voting quotas observed in the Chamber of Deputies. What is more, this chamber of Parliament is home to the most ‘northern’ wing of the Lega – that is, the section least willing to follow Salvini (least of all on the issue of preferential votes). Even on the hunting decree, Forza Italia is unsettling its allies by tabling amendments aligned with animal rights concerns (so much so that Vannacci accuses them: ‘They’re just like the left’).

We were discussing the reactions triggered by the conviction of jeweller Mario Roggero. Just yesterday, Vannacci and Salvini (who is due to be released from Bollate prison today) tried to capitalise on the case, but Meloni also felt compelled to speak out on social media, stating that “the state stands with law-abiding citizens, not with criminals”. Minister Nordio, a member of FdI, is also in favour of a pardon (although yesterday the ministry denied having initiated any such procedure). However, many of Meloni’s supporters are convinced that, as the leading party in the coalition, they cannot lean too far to the right on this issue. One test could be the measure addressing compensation for victims, which the Futuro Nazionale group is currently working on (as foreshadowed in Rossano Sasso’s phone call to Roggero himself). In short, this insistence on security – in an attempt to follow Vannacci’s lead – is not guaranteed to secure a consensus within the majority. Similarly, decisions on military spending will present a new challenge. The reform of the armed forces sought by Crosetto was due to be discussed in the Council of Ministers in mid-June but is currently on hold, partly due to opposition from sections of the majority. By the end of the summer, the government will have to make a decision on the use of SAFE funds earmarked for defence. Crosetto is pushing to take them up (this would amount to around 15 billion in loans at very favourable rates), whilst Giorgetti is much more reluctant due to cash flow concerns. But in the background, further differences are emerging over potential new military (and non-military) aid to Ukraine. As Valerio Valentini noted in "Il Post", not once since the start of the war in Ukraine has more than six months elapsed between the dispatch of one aid package and the next. In this instance, nine months have passed, given that the last intervention was last November. By the end of the year, however, a decision will have to be made. There is a serious risk of hesitation due to criticism which, on this front too, could come from Vannacci (especially for Salvini, who is already particularly sensitive to the general’s campaign). To quote the song mentioned at the start: “I know it well / Life is short and narrow too / But your mind is a great seamstress / Who sews in a hurry / In the time it takes to smoke a cigarette”. Fortunately, Meloni has given up smoking.