Calabresi’s match and Schlein’s match (which is only a domestic fixture)

Who would have anticipated it? Mario Calabresi, the outsider. It took very little—the description of a fleeting moment and shifting convictions, just like in that Tiromancino song. That missed coffee date with Elly Schlein, suspended in the moment when it could have happened, but didn’t. As most of the Milanese establishment had predicted, Calabresi was expected to be the candidate who did not need a primary. He was chosen by a party decision that would have imposed him on his fellow party members (somewhat rebellious but, deep down, very much in the minority in Milan). The weak Five Star Movement members who have one person who thinks straight (the former deputy minister, now city secretary, Stefano Buffagni) and very few who actually vote. Avs – effectively the Greens in Milan – have more votes, but far fewer than the Democrats. Then there are the Renzi supporters, who certainly don’t need convincing about Calabresi. The same goes for Calenda’s Azione. In short, looking back, the former editor-in-chief of La Repubblica, later chairman of the board and editorial director of Chora – the podcast giant behind Will and Cronache di Spogliatoio – could have had a smooth ride, with no bends in the road.

Yet it took just a moment for those convictions to change. The moment when the PD’s national secretary decided that the one and only priority is the general election campaign, because the Quirinale depends on it. And given that the general election campaign involves national primaries, all local affairs are less important, merely secondary. In fact, they are even expendable, because the only framework that matters is the national one, and there can be no digressions, no autonomy, no personal agendas. No one even has the courage to chart an independent course because the secretary draws up the candidate lists, and with the electoral law she is even more powerful. No one can say who wants a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, no one can say who wants a seat in the Senate. There are only so many seats – you can count them on the fingers of two hands – and those hands belong to the secretary. There was a moment when Elly slammed on the brakes; she didn’t say another word about Milan, even though Pierfrancesco Majorino – whom she holds in very high regard (it’s no secret) – was in the running, and she didn’t engage in any structured dialogue with Calabresi, even though this would have broadened the coalition. Because, ultimately, that is precisely the problem: expansion. How can one – within the theory of centralist monolithism – go with Carlo Calenda in Milan, at the risk of irritating the M5S and AVS, when, at national level, Azione is completely out of the picture? Why risk friction between the local and national levels when Milan is already considered a foregone conclusion—as confirmed by poll after poll and the centre-right’s inexplicable reluctance to put up a proper fight? The preference is for a loyal and utterly devoted candidate: Majorino. It is preferable to prolong the discussion over the rules, the advisory panels and related matters. It is preferable to hold the primaries next year, in February and perhaps even early March. It is preferable not to have Calenda underfoot, ensuring he remains on the sidelines.

And so, farewell to Calabresi as the PD’s candidate. Calabresi – suddenly finding himself an outsider – plucked up his courage and threw himself into the fray. Not entirely on his own, as he will be joined by Maurizio Baruffi, a former member of Pisapia’s staff, and other figures from the old ‘orange camp’. Calabresi thus becomes a problem for the party secretary. With him in the running, how can primaries be avoided? The Milan leadership, which has its finger on the pulse of the local scene, had said as much in good time: if he decides to hold them, they will be hard to avoid. He has made up his mind, without a safety net and without the party’s endorsement. He has not stood for election since the days when he used to accompany Nando Dalla Chiesa – one tall and lanky, the other sporting a thick black moustache – on the campaign trail during an ill-fated but memorable campaign. He is up against an opponent – Majorino – who, by contrast, has a well-oiled electoral machine, established voter networks and a solid organisational structure. He is moving at a measured pace, but he is already on the move: neighbourhood by neighbourhood, street by street.

Has Majorino already secured victory? Not quite. There is a potential obstacle on that front as well: Lorenzo Pacini, often described as Milan’s would-be Mamdani. Pacini advocates municipal socialism; while many of his promises are widely considered unrealistic, his following has grown from a small group to several dozen supporters. Voters appreciate his youthful demeanour, his passion and the provocative statements he makes on La Zanzara, where he appears alongside a diverse group of guests to declare, in a forceful voice, that citizens must confront fascists. His uncompromising left-wing stance. Pacini is eroding support for Majorino among younger voters, while the other two contenders, Anna Scavuzzo and Emmanuel Conte, are attracting backing from Mario Calabresi’s camp. Exactly how many remains uncertain, as their campaigns are conducted largely out of the public eye and with limited media exposure. Now the contest is really getting underway, and it plays out on two fronts: bringing together as many organised groups as possible to win the primaries, and negotiating with those who are sitting on the fence to persuade them to withdraw from the race. It remains to be seen whether Majorino or Calabresi will perform better.