Inflation jumps to 4.2 per cent: prices of food and household goods have almost doubled

Prices for food, household and personal care products continue to rise sharply. Over the past month, the year-on-year increase in prices for the so-called ‘shopping basket’ has almost doubled, rising from +0.9 per cent to +1.7 per cent. This is one of the most significant figures contained in Istat’s latest press release on consumer prices, published today based on preliminary estimates.

According to the document, inflation in energy prices is also accelerating, rising overall from +17.1 per cent to +22.3 per cent year-on-year. The sector therefore remains a key factor in changes to the cost of living, as recently acknowledged by the European Union. Also significant is the rise in prices of unprocessed food products, which rose from +3.8 per cent to +5.5 per cent, whilst those of processed food products continued to fall, albeit less sharply, from -0.4 per cent to -0.3 per cent.

Both goods and services are accelerating, but at different rates: prices for goods have risen from +4.1 per cent to +5.4 per cent year-on-year, whilst those for services have increased from +2.4 per cent to +2.6 per cent. The gap between the services and goods sectors is therefore widening, rising from -1.7 to -2.8 percentage points. Among the services showing an acceleration, transport services stand out, rising from +0.8 per cent to +1.6 per cent, as do recreational, cultural and personal care services, rising from +2.6 per cent to +2.9 per cent.

According to provisional data, the national consumer price index for the entire population (NIC), excluding tobacco, shows a month-on-month increase of +0.7 per cent and a year-on-year increase of +4.2 per cent, up from +3.3 per cent in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), on the other hand, recorded a monthly increase of +2.0 per cent – due to the end of the summer sales, which the NIC does not take into account – and a year-on-year increase of +4.1 per cent, compared with +3.2 per cent in the previous month.

Overall, year-on-year inflation rose to +4.2 per cent from +3.3 per cent in August. The projected inflation rate for 2026, however, rose to +3.1 per cent for the headline index and remained stable at +1.9 per cent for the core component, calculated excluding unprocessed food and energy.