What will become of the GOP, defeated by its own ‘Maga’ candidates (and others)?

Los Angeles. One of the real surprises of this election is that President Donald Trump has conceded defeat. Speaking to Fox News – which has always backed him – whilst the votes were being counted, he also said, however, that the Republican electorate had rejected his party’s candidates who, in recent weeks, having placed their trust in the polls and, above all, in petrol prices, had distanced themselves from him. There are various reasons why the GOP lost – the ‘referendum’ on a strong presidential system, the war in Iran, inflation, the rapprochement with Russia, and broken promises – and one of these is undoubtedly the poor political calibre of many ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) candidates who have made their way into the presidential race.

An example of a very weak candidate is Darline Graham, the sister who replaced Senator Lindsey Graham following his death; he had been a staunch advocate for aid to Ukraine within the conservative coalition. Mrs Graham proved incapable of addressing the foreign policy issues that were her brother’s forte during the campaign, and handed a crucial seat to the Democrats in South Carolina. Another example is deeply Republican Texas, where, despite Elon Musk’s millions, Ken Paxton was defeated by the rising Democratic star, the seminarian James Talarico. Paxton, whose track record was riddled with scandals, had been chosen by Trump for his obedience over a better candidate, Senator John Cornyn, who was considered more authoritative by both the electorate and his party colleagues. However, there are also moderate candidates who have paid the price for being associated with the Republican Party, such as MPs like Mike Lawler from New York or Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania, who has repeatedly challenged the President and his party on tariffs, the dance hall, wars and cabinet appointments. Both Lawler and Fitzpatrick lost their seats to Democrats with no national legislative experience.

Another moderate who was swept away against her will by the blue tsunami was Susan Collins in Maine, a Capitol Hill veteran who had voted against Republican nominations to the Supreme Court. After three decades, the senator was ousted by a candidate who was brought in at the last minute in the summer, after the Democrats’ previous choice had proved unacceptable.

The heavy defeats for the presidential party are also symbolic. Losing states such as Texas and Kansas, the two Carolinas, but also risking the loss of strongholds such as Alaska, Mississippi and Louisiana to the Democrats, demonstrates a genuine paradigm shift. As psychology teaches us, it is more painful to lose something we possess than to experience the joy of gaining something we did not have. These mid-term elections – and this is why they were so important if we are to uphold the Constitution – were Trump’s last elections, and therefore a test for the GOP, a final exercise to understand how to restructure itself over the next two years, or, as the populist nationalist strategist Steve Bannon put it bluntly: “An internal civil war awaits us.”

In 2016, the Party found itself with a maverick, derided by all, who then managed to take the reins of the electoral legacy of Reagan and the Bushes. Anyone who did not jump on his bandwagon was sidelined or expelled from the party. In 2026, the Party finds itself with a leader who has suffered a heavy defeat, but who will continue to wield considerable power – if only through executive orders – for the next two years. And this is not the first time he has taken a beating at the polls. In 2021, many were heralding the end of the Trump era, yet he returned, despite the impeachment, 6 January and weeks spent in court. There is much talk about who will take the reins, and at first glance the candidates seem to be J. D. Vance and Marco Rubio – the former as vice-president backed by tech money and the latter as Secretary of State and viceroy of Venezuela, both former anti-Trump figures – but the problem runs deeper; it is one of identity. A party cannot exist solely around a single person, nor around issues that have already been resolved, such as the border with Mexico. From today, a new chapter can begin for a GOP that may rediscover its conservative roots, or continue down the populist path fuelled by the cash of South African trillionaires.