Germany is looking for a president. But the contest is entirely within the CDU-CSU

Berlin. In July, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier had said: “My successor should be a woman”. Last Monday, Chancellor Friedrich Merz agreed with him: “I am convinced that the next president must be a woman”, before adding a political caveat: “We need a joint candidate from the centre”. A bipartisan statement intended to make it clear that the door was open to the Social Democrats – their government allies – as well as to the Greens, who are currently in opposition. This openness was more a matter of approach than of substance, given that, following two consecutive five-year terms for the Social Democrat Steinmeier (first elected in 2017), the moderate bloc is now claiming the Federal Republic’s highest office for its own party. And it is doing so – as many have appreciated – without seeking support from the increasingly vocal and controversial far-right parties. Over the course of the week, therefore, a number of names have been put forward.

The CDU, the Chancellor’s party, would not be averse to the current President of the Bundestag, Julia Klöckner, born in 1972, but Family Minister Karin Prien and former Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (known as Akk) are also warming up on the sidelines. Coming from a Jewish family – a significant factor in a Germany grappling with the ghosts of its past – Prien nevertheless faces scepticism from the SPD: the Social Democratic Party does not appreciate the fact that the 61-year-old minister supports the cuts to public spending that the Chancellor is seeking to push through. A highly regarded president of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (the party’s think-tank), the 64-year-old Akk is, however, particularly unpopular with Merz: it was she, backed by her patron Angela Merkel, who blocked his path to the CDU presidency in 2018, when the Chancellor from the East decided to focus solely on the federal government. According to the German political scene, however, none of the three women is in pole position. For whilst it is true that the Greens and the SPD can put forward candidates, another key player in the coalition – indeed, an offshoot of it – wants to be directly involved.

Let’s talk about the CSU, the Bavarian sister party of the CDU. For years now, the Bavarian Christian Socialists have been champing at the bit for a place in the front row. As far back as July 2020, Merkel accepted Minister-President Markus Söder’s invitation to attend a special session of the regional government at Herrenchiemsee. He welcomed her in a horse-drawn carriage and she even accepted a boat trip on the lake: many saw this as Merkel’s blessing of Söder’s candidacy as her successor.

The CDU, on the other hand, stood firm and chose the rather unconvincing Armin Laschet, with the result that the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz went on to win the September 2021 election. After Scholz’s defeat, three years later, Söder put himself forward as the Moderates’ candidate for chancellor but ultimately stepped aside in favour of Merz. Now that Steinmeier is preparing to leave his temporary residence on the Spree – Bellevue Palace is closed for restoration work set to last eight years – the CSU has once again come forward, and this time Merz has taken notice, allowing the name of Ilse Aigner, President of the Bavarian State Parliament since 2018, to be floated. Formerly a Member of the Bundestag, then Federal Minister for Food in Merkel’s second government, Aigner has been active in politics solely in Bavaria since 2013. She is currently the frontrunner and has already received the endorsement of numerous CDU figures (both women and men), as well as the backing of the governors of Baden-Württemberg – the Green Party’s Cem Özdemir, who stated, “We need a figure who can bring people together” – and Brandenburg.

Social Democrat Dietmar Woidke – “She’s the perfect candidate”. So, is it a done deal? Not quite. The strength of her candidacy goes hand in hand with its weakness: Friedrich Merz remains Germany’s most unpopular politician, and his endorsement risks doing more harm than good. That is why the Chancellor has decided to proceed very cautiously, consulting – or rather seeking permission from – the CDU, before consulting the CSU, then the SPD and finally the Greens. It begins with an informal dinner on Sunday evening amongst CDU leaders, ahead of the party executive meeting the following day. The aim is to seek the broadest possible consensus to avoid any sniping or embarrassment. Söder is already rubbing his hands with glee, even though some point out that the first vote to elect the next head of state is not scheduled until the end of January. It is therefore surprising that the CSU has put forward its own candidate so early, running the risk that she might end up ‘politically burnt out’.