Inflation, Europe, tariffs, wars, China. The high-profile referendums Trump has already lost, outside America

Donald Trump made it perfectly clear. He suggested that voters imagine his name on the ballot paper. And, whilst waiting to say – should it ever be necessary – that he never actually said this, he suggested viewing the mid-term elections as a massive referendum on his leadership. It is unclear how the referendum will end, although the conditions for a Republican rout appear to be in place—both in the House (considered a foregone conclusion) and in the Senate (less of a foregone conclusion)—and seasoned Republican strategists such as Steve Bannon are well aware of this; they are already advising their supporters to don Capitol Hill-style horned headgear to withstand the not-entirely-impossible internal Republican revolt (ten of the twelve most important states where Senate elections will be held were won by Donald Trump in 2024 and could now be won by the Democrats).

However, when it comes to referendums, the U.S. president has lost several over the past two years in the White House, and some of those defeats have even been welcomed. Neither does Trump’s failed gamble to overthrow the Iranian regime put one in a good mood (a failed mission, although before saying that Iran is stronger than before, it is worth waiting a little longer), nor his gamble to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours (something Trump has hoped to achieve in recent months by exerting repeated pressure on the victimised country whilst lavishing praise on the aggressor). However, a few other failed referendums by the American president do put one in a good mood.

Trump had bet on the disintegration of Europe and the proliferation of populism across all European countries, and two years after his arrival, Europe is not stronger than ever, but it is certainly stronger than before (just ask Burnham’s United Kingdom, which is now more tempted than ever to re-engage with the EU), and the push towards European sovereignty has been minimal (just ask Trump’s protégé, Mr Viktor by name and Orbán by surname, who has been sidelined in Hungary). Trump had bet on his tariffs’ ability to dictate the new rules of globalisation, and the result of Trump’s tariffs – those not struck down by the US federal courts – has been to push the world’s major countries to strengthen their own free-trade agreements, allowing trade, precisely during the years of Trump’s tariffs, to reach record levels (the WTO has just raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 from 1.9 to 3.9 per cent). Trump had also staked his hopes on the ability to use an economic agenda based on protectionism to influence a country’s inflationary processes, under the illusion that product prices could be better regulated by the state than by the market, and the result is that today, Trump-style protectionism has played a significant role in driving up the costs of many products, as confirmed by a study by the Kiel Institute, according to which around 96 per cent of the burden of tariffs has fallen on US consumers, not on foreign exporters (inflation before Trump stood at 3 per cent; today it stands at 3.7 per cent per annum).

Trump had said that America’s friends would be protected (ask the Gulf states). He had said that there would be a global wave of ‘Make America Great Again’ (ask Mark Carney’s Canada, which defeated the Canadian right thanks to Trump’s threats against Canada, and Meloni’s Italy, which distanced itself from Trump despite its ostentatious closeness in the past). He had said he would do everything in his power to drive a wedge between Russia and China (which have never been so close), to bring India closer to America (which has never been so far away), and to strip China of its power (which has never been so influential). Trump’s referendum defeats outside America thus remind us that the golden age, for the time being, belongs more to the followers of anti-Trumpism than to the weary followers of the MAGA agenda. Who knows, perhaps this trend will soon be confirmed in America too.