Primary election alert: whoever wins, the disappointed voters could then stay away from the polls

All pollsters contacted so far by the centre-left invariably give exactly the same answer: in the primaries, whether Elly Schlein wins or Giuseppe Conte wins, a section of their respective electorates will not vote – either because they would only follow their own leader or because they hold the other candidate in low regard. Admittedly, the tendency not to vote in the event of their leader’s defeat is greater amongst the Five Star Movement’s electorate, but even amongst the Democrats – particularly among non-party members – a potential victory for Conte would lead a section of voters to abstain from voting for the centre-left. This represents a significant problem. However, it also presents an opportunity for the few (yet they do exist) leaders within the Democratic Party who are still pushing for a third candidate. Such a ‘guarantor’, in fact, would be able to retain sections of the PD and Five Star Movement electorates who might otherwise be tempted to stay away from the polling stations.

However, while Giuseppe Conte, despite his denials, remains open to the possibility of a third candidate, Elly Schlein does not even want to hear it mentioned. The PD secretary and her loyal supporters are banking on victory in the primaries. It is true that in the south the leader of the Five Star Movement could prevail thanks to votes from Campania and Sicily, but it is also true that the centre-north is almost entirely PD-dominated. Moreover, voter turnout in that part of the country is higher than in the south. This time, however, in addition to strict rules preventing anyone from turning up at polling stations or voting online, the Democrats are also organising thorough monitoring of the ‘polling stations’, particularly in the south, to prevent the influx of organised groups of voters who have little to do with the centre-left.

It is not just Roberto Gualtieri. It is not only on the mayor of Rome that the M5S’s votes will ultimately converge. In fact, a very specific directive has come from the Nazareno: we must go into the local elections in the spring of 2027 with the broadest possible coalition so as not to reveal any cracks in the alliance that will stand in the general election. For this reason, even in Milan – where the M5S carries almost no weight – efforts will be made to forge an alliance for the mayoral candidate that also includes Conte’s supporters.

Elly Schlein has spoiled the party for the Montepulciano faction, which had hoped to play a decisive role in the political manoeuvring that has unfolded within the centre-left, but which no longer holds sway now that the Democratic Party secretary has put herself forward as a candidate for the National Assembly. Nevertheless, the leaders of that wing of the PD have demonstrated that they have successfully accelerated the preparatory phase (manifesto and primaries), given that, at the close of their seminar, the Democratic Party leader promised that the manifesto would be finalised swiftly.

But is that really the case? The truth is that Schlein has become convinced that Giorgia Meloni will ultimately win the election before the summer, not after, and so there is no longer any need to put the brakes on the primaries, which, according to the secretary, should not be held too far in advance of the general election. Furthermore, it must also be said that Schlein has not set any dates and has remained very vague regarding the meeting with the other coalition leaders. This is not because the meeting is not already on the agenda, but rather because the Democratic Party leader wants the meeting to focus not on drawing up a programme, but on discussing the framework within which the centre-left will operate. The actual programme will be discussed again in November – or perhaps even in December.