The EU has the team to engage with Putin, but lacks red lines. Italy is also involved

Brussels. The more European leaders debate who should represent them in negotiations on the war in Ukraine, the more the number of Europe’s representatives swells. In Dublin, during an informal European Council meeting ostensibly dedicated to artificial intelligence, EU heads of state and government held yet another debate on their negotiator, only to conclude that the team which has so far accompanied Volodymyr Zelensky in his meetings with Donald Trump’s envoys must be further expanded. “A team,” said the President of the European Council, António Costa. The new formula will be the E5 plus the EU institutions: France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Poland, together with representatives of the President of the European Council and the President of the Commission. “The debate over names fuels divisions,” a European diplomat explained to Il Foglio: “That is exactly what Russia wants.” 

After two days of drama in Dublin over the name of a potential EU envoy, “the leaders have decided that our European team for the peace negotiations in Ukraine consists of the EU institutions and the E5 of the coalition of the willing”, said Costa. The principles are the same as those agreed in June. “Only Ukraine has the legitimacy to decide on matters concerning its territory and sovereignty,” explained Costa. “The EU has a central role to play in discussing Ukraine’s future, its reconstruction and its prosperity. Security guarantees must be addressed within the framework of the Coalition of the Willing, in close coordination with NATO,” added the President of the European Council: “We will work as a European team on this effort.” But it is an increasingly large and fragmented team. In Miami at the end of August, the national security advisers from France, the United Kingdom and Germany were present, as well as Bjoern Seibert, the chief of staff to the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In Abu Dhabi this week, they were joined by Italy’s national security adviser and Anna-Maria Boura, Costa’s diplomatic adviser. In Dublin, it was decided that Poland’s national security adviser would also take part in the next stages of the discussions. Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, who in theory is supposed to lead the EU’s foreign and security policy, has been excluded. The “European team” will consist solely of the advisers to the Presidents of the European Council and the Commission. Von der Leyen has long been at odds with the High Representative. Some Member States consider Kallas to be too hardline on Russia to take part in the negotiations.

“Europe will make its voice heard, clearly and with one voice, as part of the current diplomatic efforts,” Costa assured: “Our position is clear: the security of Europe and that of Ukraine are inseparable. And our objective remains unchanged: a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.” The problem is that there is no unity amongst the twenty-seven member states on the details of the negotiations with Russia. “A second, equally important phase is now beginning: defining the political and negotiating mandate under which Europe will participate in the next round of talks with Ukraine, the United States and Russia,” said Palazzo Chigi, following Italy’s formal inclusion in the team of European negotiators. “We must agree on what we are demanding and what Europe’s red lines are”, but “there is no consensus on the EU’s position. There are nuances”, explains a second diplomat: “There is not even consensus on sending Kallas”. In February, the High Representative had presented a document containing several maximalist demands to be put to Russia: an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, war reparations, cooperation with international justice, and withdrawal from Moldova and Georgia. According to some Member States, Kallas’s red lines “are not realistic”, says the second diplomat.

Kallas is hated by the Kremlin, which has issued an arrest warrant against her. According to Bild, Putin is said to have presented Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff with even more extreme demands to end his war against Ukraine: a review of the European security architecture, with NATO returning to its pre-1997 military posture (when the former Warsaw Pact countries began to join); Finland’s withdrawal from the Atlantic Alliance, and secessionist referendums in Transnistria and Gagauzia should Moldova join the EU. Almost five years after the start of the war, the EU still has no strategy on how to deal with Russia; it continues to accept the theatre of futile negotiations imposed by Donald Trump and now even allows the Kremlin to decide who may or may not sit at the table on its behalf.