In Dublin, the EU’s security architecture remains a problem

Brussels. With the complicity of Donald Trump and his special envoys, Vladimir Putin has scored at least two points this week against the Europeans in his attempt to undermine their support for Ukraine. Gathered in Dublin for two days of summits, the heads of state and government of the European Union are wasting more time debating who should represent them in negotiations to end the war, and how to respond to the call to overhaul Europe’s security architecture, than they are finding ways to increase support for Kyiv and put more pressure on Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned against falling into the trap set by Putin regarding the security architecture.

“Europe must pay close attention when the Americans and Russians address this issue,” said Zelensky during the European Political Community summit. The President of the European Council, António Costa, assured that “there is no need to reinvent the wheel” because the security architecture already exists and it is Russia that has violated it by attacking Ukraine. However, another key player could undermine it: U.S. President Donald Trump. All he needs to do is definitively betray Ukraine and discredit NATO’s deterrence. Yesterday in Dublin, the issue of Europe’s representative in the negotiations on Ukraine dominated discussions on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit. 

There will be a second opportunity today during an informal European Council meeting, after Giorgia Meloni asked Costa to discuss the EU envoy and his mandate. Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz deemed the debate premature or inappropriate. First, there needs to be “a clear and united vision of what (Europe) wants for Ukraine and for itself”, said the French President: “Content determines the format.” Europe is already represented by the E3 format (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) and “there is no reason for this to change”, said the German Chancellor. The issue of a European representative has been discussed several times by leaders, each time “without reaching a conclusion”, a senior EU official explained to Il Foglio. At the European Council in March 2025, there was no agreement amongst the twenty-seven member states. Last June, the heads of state and government reached a typically Brussels-style compromise: on matters concerning the EU – such as sanctions, aid to Ukraine or reconstruction – it is the EU institutions that represent the EU.

According to the treaties, the role of representing the EU falls to António Costa and Kaja Kallas. High Representative Kaja Kallas reiterated this in Dublin. The Baltic states take the same line. The Estonian Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, has called for Costa and Kallas to represent Europeans. However, it is Ursula von der Leyen’s Chief of Staff, Bjoern Seibert, who has established himself as the EU’s representative in meetings with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, from last August in Miami right through to Abu Dhabi this week. Meloni explained that she would not be opposed to Costa, but the issue of representing non-EU countries remains. In any case, “my view on there being too many formats remains unchanged”, Meloni added, emphasising the importance of defining a mandate. “If you ask me whether there will be an agreement in Dublin on a representative for Europe, my answer is no,” says the senior EU official. Nor will it happen in the future, because “none of the E3 will stand up and give up a seat at the table”, explains another diplomat.

At first glance, the discussion amongst the 27 member states on the security architecture appears to be more consensual. “Europe had a functional European security architecture, which was first gradually undermined and then ultimately destroyed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said Costa. In Abu Dhabi, the Europeans managed to persuade Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to sign a declaration in which they commit to postponing discussions with Russia on a new security architecture until after the end of the war. But Putin is determined to make use of this window of opportunity. At the Kremlin, the Russian leader reiterated to Witkoff and Kushner that the new security architecture must be discussed before the war ends and urged them to persuade the Europeans. “We would very much like you, dear sirs, and the US Administration as a whole, to work with your European allies so that they can finally decide what they want: peace or war in Ukraine,” said Putin. Trump is due to meet the Russian leader next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China. By the end of the year, his administration is expected to announce plans to withdraw thousands of American troops from Europe, which could have a significant impact on the Old Continent’s security architecture.

Costa and von der Leyen announced yesterday that a proposal would be put forward later this month regarding financial aid to Ukraine and the 22nd package of sanctions against Russia. To help the country get through the winter, 500 generators, four floating bridges (from Norway) and 200 buses will be supplied. The Europeans, however, are unable to provide Starshield satellite coverage, and EU member states are unwilling to transfer Patriot interceptors for fear of leaving themselves defenceless.